Senior Biotech Forecasting Analyst

Mercor; Lacaussade; À distance; EUR 40 000 - 60 000; Temps partiel

Résumé du poste

A leading AI research firm is seeking a Senior Commercial / Forecasting Expert to develop peak-sales forecasts and collaborate with data science teams. The ideal candidate will have 10-15 years of experience in biotech forecasting and must articulate reasoning behind base-case assumptions. This part-time contract role offers a flexible remote working arrangement and competitive compensation ranging from $200 to $275 per hour.

Qualifications

• Director/Sr. Director/VP-level experience in global forecasting, brand planning, or commercial insights.
• Experience building patient-based peak-sales models used in investment contexts.
• Familiarity with forecasting for multiple drugs or indications.

Responsabilités

• Write 'golden' peak-sales forecasts for representative drug programs.
• Define structural checks and sanity bands for automated forecast evaluations.
• Collaborate with data science teams to enhance forecast accountability.

Description du poste

About The Job

Mercor connects elite creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs. Headquartered in San Francisco, our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Peter Thiel, Adam D'Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey.

Position

Senior Commercial / Forecasting Expert

Type

Contract / Part-time

Compensation

$200–$275/hour

Location

Remote

Role Responsibilities

• Write “golden” peak-sales forecasts for representative drug programs and standard prompts.
• Define structural checks, scenario logic, and sanity bands for automated forecast evaluations.
• Make explicit the heuristics and base-rate assumptions used by experienced forecasters to distinguish realistic models from speculative ones.
• Collaborate with data science and evaluation teams to enhance forecast accountability and improve model outputs.
• Develop a forecast rubric with critical checks for market structure realism and patient flow logic.

Qualifications

Must-Have

• Director/Sr. Director/VP-level experience in global forecasting, brand planning, or commercial insights.
• Experience building and defending patient-based peak-sales models used in portfolio, BD, or investment contexts.
• Familiarity with forecasting for multiple drugs or indications, especially pre-launch and early commercialization.
• Ability to articulate reasoning behind base-case assumptions and their evolution post-launch.
• Experience writing or reviewing governance-ready peak-sales models.

Preferred

• Senior biotech equity analyst, VC incubation / BD lead, or company creation expert.
• Experience building patient-level and revenue models for investment diligence or asset valuation.
• Ability to critique or improve bottoms-up forecasts from an investor’s perspective.

Experience Level

• 10–15 years in biotech/pharma forecasting, investment, or commercial strategy roles.
• Experience with pre-launch forecasts → post-launch actuals for multiple assets.
• Comfort with market modeling logic (TPP inputs → eligible pool → penetration → price/net → ramp + LOE).
• Evidence of post-hoc learning and ability to articulate where real-world results diverged from base-case assumptions.

Application Process (Takes 20–30 mins to complete)

• Upload resume
• AI interview based on your resume
• Submit form

Resources & Support

• For details about the interview process and platform information, please check: https://talent.docs.mercor.com/welcome/welcome
• For any help or support, reach out to: [e-mail]

PS: Our team reviews applications daily. Please complete your AI interview and application steps to be considered for this opportunity.