Superforecaster

Mercor; Greater London; Remote; GBP 60,000 - 80,000; Part time

Job summary

A talent marketplace is seeking elite superforecasters to contribute to a high-impact research initiative in AI. The role requires delivering calibrated forecasts on complex questions, and candidates should have affiliations with leading forecasting organizations and demonstrable experience. This is a remote position with an expected commitment of 10–20 hours per week, offering competitive compensation at $140–245/hour for U.S.-based applicants.

Qualifications

• Recognized affiliation with a forecasting organization (e.g., GJP, Swift Centre, RFI, IIF).
• Demonstrated forecasting accuracy and calibration over multiple years.
• Experience contributing to high-stakes or public forecasting tournaments.
• Strong analytical, probabilistic, and written communication skills.
• Comfortable working independently and asynchronously on structured tasks.

Responsibilities

• Deliver calibrated, evidence-backed forecasts on complex, real-world questions.
• Document forecasting rationale, methodology, and sources with clarity and structure.
• Participate in peer review and collaborative forecast refinement.
• Advise on prompt quality, scoring frameworks, and resolution criteria.
• Support the evaluation of AI-generated forecasts against human benchmarks.

Job description

1. Role Overview

Mercor is partnering with a leading AI lab on a high-impact research initiative focused on improving AI systems' long-range reasoning and predictive capabilities. We’re seeking elite superforecasters—especially those affiliated with institutions like the Good Judgment Project, Swift Centre, Rand Forecasting Initiative (RFI), or the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF)—to contribute structured, high-quality forecasts across domains such as geopolitics, macroeconomics, and global events. This is a rare opportunity to collaborate with top experts and researchers shaping the future of AI forecasting models.

2. Key Responsibilities

• Deliver calibrated, evidence-backed forecasts on complex, real-world questions

• Document forecasting rationale, methodology, and sources with clarity and structure

• Participate in peer review and collaborative forecast refinement

• Advise on prompt quality, scoring frameworks, and resolution criteria

• Support the evaluation of AI-generated forecasts against human benchmarks

3. Ideal Qualifications

• Recognized affiliation with a forecasting organization (e.g., GJP, Swift Centre, RFI, IIF)

• Demonstrated forecasting accuracy and calibration over multiple years

• Experience contributing to high-stakes or public forecasting tournaments

• Strong analytical, probabilistic, and written communication skills

• Comfortable working independently and asynchronously on structured tasks

4. More About the Opportunity

• Remote and asynchronous — work on your own schedule

• Expected commitment: ~10–20 hours/week

5. Compensation & Contract Terms

• $140–245/hour for U.S.-based applicantt

• You’ll be classified as an independent contractor

6. Application Process

• Submit your Mercor profile or resume to get started

• You’ll complete a brief form

• We’ll follow up within a few days with next steps

7. About Mercor

• Mercor is a talent marketplace that connects top experts with leading AI labs and research organizations

• Our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Adam D’Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey

• Thousands of professionals across domains like law, creatives, engineering, and research have joined Mercor to work on frontier projects shaping the next era of AI