Remote Senior Forecaster for AI-Driven Global Predictions

Mercor; Greater London; Remote; GBP 60,000 - 80,000; Part time

Job summary

A talent marketplace is seeking elite superforecasters to contribute to a high-impact research initiative in AI. The role requires delivering calibrated forecasts on complex questions, and candidates should have affiliations with leading forecasting organizations and demonstrable experience. This is a remote position with an expected commitment of 10–20 hours per week, offering competitive compensation at $140–245/hour for U.S.-based applicants.

Qualifications

• Recognized affiliation with a forecasting organization (e.g., GJP, Swift Centre, RFI, IIF).
• Demonstrated forecasting accuracy and calibration over multiple years.
• Experience contributing to high-stakes or public forecasting tournaments.
• Strong analytical, probabilistic, and written communication skills.
• Comfortable working independently and asynchronously on structured tasks.

Responsibilities

• Deliver calibrated, evidence-backed forecasts on complex, real-world questions.
• Document forecasting rationale, methodology, and sources with clarity and structure.
• Participate in peer review and collaborative forecast refinement.
• Advise on prompt quality, scoring frameworks, and resolution criteria.
• Support the evaluation of AI-generated forecasts against human benchmarks.

Job description

A talent marketplace is seeking elite superforecasters to contribute to a high-impact research initiative in AI. The role requires delivering calibrated forecasts on complex questions, and candidates should have affiliations with leading forecasting organizations and demonstrable experience. This is a remote position with an expected commitment of 10–20 hours per week, offering competitive compensation at $140–245/hour for U.S.-based applicants.