Swing-State Political Risk & Forecast Analyst

Mercor; Des Moines (IA); Remote; USD 120,000 - 160,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor seeks an experienced political analyst to author point-in-time reports on elections, polling, and political-risk events in the United States. You will reason from a fixed evidence cutoff and document judgments a strong analyst would make at that moment.

You will craft forecasts, explain causal mechanisms, and assess model analyses against your own standards, focusing on swing states with on-the-ground knowledge of electorates and candidates.

Qualifications

• Local political analysts with hands-on experience on specific races in swing states.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• Record of live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in US races.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Forecasting

Live race judgment

Job description

Mercor seeks an experienced political analyst to author point-in-time reports on elections, polling, and political-risk events in the United States. You will reason from a fixed evidence cutoff and document judgments a strong analyst would make at that moment.

You will craft forecasts, explain causal mechanisms, and assess model analyses against your own standards, focusing on swing states with on-the-ground knowledge of electorates and candidates.