Senior Elections Forecaster: Politics, Polls & Risk

Mercor; United States; A distancia; USD 140.000 - 190.000; Jornada completa

Descripción de la vacante

Mercor seeks an experienced senior elections forecaster to craft point-in-time political reports and forecasts from fixed evidence cutoffs. You will assess polling and probabilities, and articulate how events influence political and market outcomes with clear causal reasoning.

Ideal candidates bring deep forecasting literacy, a track record of live judgment on odds, and the ability to grade model analyses against independent standards.

Formación

• Senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst.
• Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.

Responsabilidades

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Conocimientos

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Forecasting

Descripción del empleo

Mercor seeks an experienced senior elections forecaster to craft point-in-time political reports and forecasts from fixed evidence cutoffs. You will assess polling and probabilities, and articulate how events influence political and market outcomes with clear causal reasoning.

Ideal candidates bring deep forecasting literacy, a track record of live judgment on odds, and the ability to grade model analyses against independent standards.