Swing-State Elections Forecaster & Political Risk Analyst

Mercor; United States; À distance; USD 90 000 - 130 000; Plein temps

Résumé du poste

Jade is seeking a local political analyst in the United States to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from fixed evidence cutoffs. You will make directional judgments about polling and win probabilities, explain the causal mechanisms behind political and market impacts, and review model analyses to grade performance against standards.

The role requires on-the-ground knowledge of swing-state races, with 8+ years of direct experience or equivalent performance.

Qualifications

• Hands-on experience on specific races in swing states (authentic forecasting).
• On-the-ground knowledge of electorate, candidates, and local environment.
• Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.

Responsabilités

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Connaissances

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Live judgment on polling/odds

Description du poste

Jade is seeking a local political analyst in the United States to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from fixed evidence cutoffs. You will make directional judgments about polling and win probabilities, explain the causal mechanisms behind political and market impacts, and review model analyses to grade performance against standards.

The role requires on-the-ground knowledge of swing-state races, with 8+ years of direct experience or equivalent performance.