Swing-State Elections Forecasting Analyst

Mercor; Des Moines (IA); Remote; USD 70,000 - 110,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor is seeking a political forecasting analyst to author point-in-time reports on elections, polling, and political risk in swing states. You will document directional judgments on polling and probabilities, explain how events impact political and market outcomes, and review model analyses for quality and accuracy.

The role requires strong polling literacy, live judgment ability, and deep knowledge of US races, typically with 8+ years of hands-on experience.

Qualifications

• Experience with forecasting, polling, or probability judgment in US races.
• On-the-ground knowledge of swing-state electorates.
• Ability to justify judgments from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Strong understanding of polling and causal analysis.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Live judgments on polling/odds

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Local political analysis experience

8+ years experience

Job description

Mercor is seeking a political forecasting analyst to author point-in-time reports on elections, polling, and political risk in swing states. You will document directional judgments on polling and probabilities, explain how events impact political and market outcomes, and review model analyses for quality and accuracy.

The role requires strong polling literacy, live judgment ability, and deep knowledge of US races, typically with 8+ years of hands-on experience.