Local Politics Forecasting & Analysis Lead

Mercor; New York (NY); Remote; USD 90,000 - 150,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor is seeking an experienced political analyst to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from fixed evidence cutoffs. You will judge polling outcomes, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events and their political and market impact.

You will review model analyses and compare them to your own judgments, drawing on extensive experience in US races across swing states.

Qualifications

• 8+ years of direct experience in US political races in target states.
• Experience in roles such as university political scientist, state or regional pollster, campaign or party analytics staff, or race-ratings outlets.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Local political experience

On-the-ground knowledge

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Forecasting and probability judgment

Job description

Mercor is seeking an experienced political analyst to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from fixed evidence cutoffs. You will judge polling outcomes, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events and their political and market impact.

You will review model analyses and compare them to your own judgments, drawing on extensive experience in US races across swing states.