Local Politics Forecasting Expert: Elections, Polling

Mercor; New York (NY); Remote; USD 80,000 - 120,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor is seeking a local political analyst to author point-in-time political reports on elections, polling, and political-risk events from a fixed evidence cutoff with precise judgment.

You will evaluate polling, compute win probabilities and market-implied odds, and explain causal mechanisms behind events while reviewing model analyses against your standards to ensure forecast quality.

Qualifications

• Local political analysts with hands-on experience on specific races in swing states.
• On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, the candidates, and the local political environment, from roles such as university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff, or state political-risk analyst.
• A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races — not retrospective commentary
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
• Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard

Skills

Strong polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Job description

Mercor is seeking a local political analyst to author point-in-time political reports on elections, polling, and political-risk events from a fixed evidence cutoff with precise judgment.

You will evaluate polling, compute win probabilities and market-implied odds, and explain causal mechanisms behind events while reviewing model analyses against your standards to ensure forecast quality.