Political Risk Forecaster & AI Model Trainer

Obsidian; Washington (District of Columbia); On-site; USD 120,000 - 180,000; Full time

Job summary

Obsidian is building expert-authored forecasting and research data to evaluate AI models on US political and financial analysis. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

We seek local analysts with hands-on experience on swing-state races, strong polling literacy, and a proven record of live judgments on polling or odds, typically 8+ years in state politics or campaign analytics.

Qualifications

• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• Proven live judgments about polling or odds in US races.
• On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate and local political environment.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Polling literacy

Causal analysis

Forecasting skills

Probability judgment

Job description

Obsidian is building expert-authored forecasting and research data to evaluate AI models on US political and financial analysis. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

We seek local analysts with hands-on experience on swing-state races, strong polling literacy, and a proven record of live judgments on polling or odds, typically 8+ years in state politics or campaign analytics.