Senior Elections Forecaster & Political Risk Analyst

Obsidian; San Francisco (CA); Remote; USD 150,000 - 210,000; Full time

Job summary

Obsidian is seeking a senior elections forecaster to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a fixed evidence cutoff. You will make directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, and explain the causal mechanisms behind expected political and market impacts.

You will also review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own high standards, contributing to high-quality political-risk forecasting and analysis for AI model evaluation.

Qualifications

• Experience in forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment
• Strong ability to reason from fixed evidence cutoffs
• Excellent written communication and documentation skills
• Background in political risk or elections analysis preferred

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard

Job description

Obsidian is seeking a senior elections forecaster to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a fixed evidence cutoff. You will make directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, and explain the causal mechanisms behind expected political and market impacts.

You will also review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own high standards, contributing to high-quality political-risk forecasting and analysis for AI model evaluation.