Local Political Forecasting Expert — Elections & Risk

Mercor; United States; Remote; USD 90,000 - 140,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor builds expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate AI models on real political and financial analysis. This role focuses on elections, polling, and political-risk events in the United States.

You will author point-in-time political reports from a stated evidence cutoff, make directional judgments about polling and odds, explain causal mechanisms, and review model analyses against your own standards.

Qualifications

• Local political analysts with hands-on experience on swing-state races
• On-the-ground knowledge of electorate and local environment from roles like university political scientist, state pollster, campaign analytics staff, or state political-risk analyst
• Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races — not retrospective commentary
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard

Skills

Strong polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Live judgment on polling/odds

Job description

Mercor builds expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate AI models on real political and financial analysis. This role focuses on elections, polling, and political-risk events in the United States.

You will author point-in-time political reports from a stated evidence cutoff, make directional judgments about polling and odds, explain causal mechanisms, and review model analyses against your own standards.