Iowa Political Forecasting Analyst

Mercor; United States; Remote; USD 90,000 - 170,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor is seeking a senior local political analyst to author point-in-time reports and forecasts for US elections and policy events. You will draw on on-the-ground knowledge of swing-state electorates and recent race dynamics to produce precise, evidence-cut analyses.

You will evaluate polling signals, document directional judgments, explain causal mechanisms behind events' political and market impact, and critique model outputs against your own standards.

Qualifications

• 8+ years of direct experience in US political analysis or equivalent performance.
• Hands-on experience with specific swing-state races (Senate, governor, statewide contests).
• On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate and local political environment.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Forecasting ability

Job description

Mercor is seeking a senior local political analyst to author point-in-time reports and forecasts for US elections and policy events. You will draw on on-the-ground knowledge of swing-state electorates and recent race dynamics to produce precise, evidence-cut analyses.

You will evaluate polling signals, document directional judgments, explain causal mechanisms behind events' political and market impact, and critique model outputs against your own standards.