Market-Risk Analyst

Mercor; Manchester; Hybrid; GBP 80,000 - 100,000; Part time

Job summary

A leading AI research organization in Manchester seeks an Internal Human Super-Forecaster to work closely with AI teams generating and validating forecasts. Candidates should possess an advanced degree or considerable experience in relevant fields and a proven track record in probabilistic forecasting. Strong analytical skills and proficiency in Python, R, or Excel are essential for success. This contract position offers competitive hourly compensation based on experience and commitment levels.

Qualifications

• Advanced degree or extensive experience in Forecasting or related field.
• Proven track record of high-quality probabilistic forecasts.
• Strong competency in calibration and structured judgment techniques.

Responsibilities

• Work with AI teams to generate and validate forecasts.
• Enhance forecasting accuracy through quantitative techniques.
• Evaluate AI forecasts for alignment with human judgment.

Skills

Probabilistic reasoning

Quantitative techniques

Data visualization

Analytical reasoning

Communication skills

Education

Advanced degree in relevant field

Tools

Python

R

Excel

Job description

About The Job

Mercor connects elite creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs. Headquartered in San Francisco, our investors include Benchmark , General Catalyst , Peter Thiel , Adam D'Angelo , Larry Summers , and Jack Dorsey .

Position: Internal Human Super-Forecaster

Type: Contract

Compensation: $200–$400 / hour

Commitment: 20–30 hours / week

Role Responsibilities

• Work closely with AI research teams to generate, train, and validate human‑anchored forecasts on key strategic questions and emerging risks.
• Apply rigorous probabilistic reasoning and quantitative techniques to enhance both human and machine forecasting accuracy.
• Evaluate AI models’ forecasts for coherence and alignment with structured human judgment. Provide expert feedback on model errors and biases.
• Design and review forecasting experiments and challenge frameworks to turn strategic uncertainty into actionable insight.
• Participate in synchronous collaboration sessions to review forecast portfolios and refine judgments.

Qualifications

Must‑Have

• Advanced degree or extensive professional experience in Forecasting, Decision Science, Economics, Political Science, Risk Analysis or a related field.
• Proven track record of making high‑quality probabilistic forecasts or decision‑intelligence insights.
• Strong competency in probability, calibration, scenario design, and structured judgment techniques.
• Proficiency with forecasting tools, data visualization, or statistical software (e.g., Python, R, Excel).
• Excellent written and verbal communication and strong analytical reasoning.

Resources & Support

• For details about the interview process and platform information, please check : https : / / talent.docs.mercor.com / welcome / welcome
• For any help or support, reach out to : [e-mail]

PS : Our team reviews applications daily. Please complete your AI interview and application steps to be considered for this opportunity.