Political Risk Forecaster for U.S. Elections

Obsidian; New York (NY); Remote; USD 120,000 - 180,000; Full time

Job summary

Obsidian is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

As a local political analyst, you will author point-in-time reports from a fixed evidence cutoff, make directional judgments about polling and odds, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events' political and market impacts.

Qualifications

• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• Experience evaluating polling results and making live judgments.
• 8+ years of direct political-analytic experience with US races in swing states.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Live judgment under cutoff

Job description

Obsidian is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

As a local political analyst, you will author point-in-time reports from a fixed evidence cutoff, make directional judgments about polling and odds, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events' political and market impacts.