Maine Political Forecasting Analyst

Mercor; New York (NY); On-site; USD 90,000 - 170,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

You will author point-in-time political reports and forecasts, make directional judgments about polling and odds, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events' political and market impacts. You will review model analyses and grade them against your judgment.

Qualifications

• 8+ years of direct experience in political analysis or equivalent
• Strong polling literacy and ability to perform causal event analysis
• Hands-on experience with specific races in swing states
• Ability to make live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard

Skills

Polling literacy

Forecasting & odds

Causal event analysis

Live judgments on races

State-level political knowledge

Education

Political science or related field

Job description

Mercor is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

You will author point-in-time political reports and forecasts, make directional judgments about polling and odds, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events' political and market impacts. You will review model analyses and grade them against your judgment.