Remote US Political Forecasting Expert (Swing States)

Benture; Northern (KY); Hybrid; USD 207,000 - 344,000; Part time

Job summary

Mercor is seeking seasoned local political analysts to author expert-level forecasting reports and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models in real political and financial analysis. This is a high-impact contractor role for practitioners with hands-on experience in specific US swing-state races.

Responsibilities include authoring point-in-time reports, judging polling and market probabilities, and explaining causal mechanisms behind events’ expected political and market impact.

Qualifications

• Hands-on experience with US swing-state races.
• Ability to make live probabilistic judgments on polls and win probabilities.
• Explain causal mechanisms behind events' political and market impact.

Responsibilities

• Author expert-level forecasting reports based on fixed evidence cutoff.
• Evaluate polling data and market-implied odds; document directional judgments.
• Review AI-generated analyses against professional standards.
• Operate as a contractor for high-impact political forecasting research.

Skills

Polling literacy

Probabilistic judgment

Forecasting

Causal analysis

Education

Political science degree

Job description

Mercor is seeking seasoned local political analysts to author expert-level forecasting reports and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models in real political and financial analysis. This is a high-impact contractor role for practitioners with hands-on experience in specific US swing-state races.

Responsibilities include authoring point-in-time reports, judging polling and market probabilities, and explaining causal mechanisms behind events’ expected political and market impact.