Senior Elections Forecaster & Real-Time Forecasting

Mercor; Chicago (IL); On-site; USD 120,000 - 180,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor is building expert-authored forecasting and research data to evaluate AI models on real political and financial analysis. The role focuses on political report authorship—elections, polling, and political-risk events.

You will craft point-in-time forecasts and document judgments with evidence cutoffs, ensuring rigorous, reproducible analysis. We seek a senior forecaster or risk analyst with a track record of live polling judgments and strong causal analysis.

Qualifications

• 8+ years direct experience in elections forecaster or related field.
• Proven record of making live judgments about polling or odds.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• Work sample performance determines eligibility.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Polling literacy

Live judgment

Forecasting

Causal event analysis

Job description

Mercor is building expert-authored forecasting and research data to evaluate AI models on real political and financial analysis. The role focuses on political report authorship—elections, polling, and political-risk events.

You will craft point-in-time forecasts and document judgments with evidence cutoffs, ensuring rigorous, reproducible analysis. We seek a senior forecaster or risk analyst with a track record of live polling judgments and strong causal analysis.