Senior Elections Forecaster & Real-Time Polling Analyst

Mercor; New York (NY); On-site; USD 120,000 - 180,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor is building expert-authored forecasting and research data to evaluate and improve AI models on political and financial analysis. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events. You will author point-in-time political reports, make directional judgments about polling and odds, explain causal mechanisms, and review model analyses for accuracy. The position emphasizes deep experience in forecasting and risk assessment.

Qualifications

• 8+ years of direct experience in forecasting or polling.
• Proven ability to make live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• Experience in reviewing model analyses against real outcomes.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Forecasting experience

Data review

Job description

Mercor is building expert-authored forecasting and research data to evaluate and improve AI models on political and financial analysis. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events. You will author point-in-time political reports, make directional judgments about polling and odds, explain causal mechanisms, and review model analyses for accuracy. The position emphasizes deep experience in forecasting and risk assessment.