State Political Risk Forecasting Analyst

Mercor; New York (NY); Remote; USD 90,000 - 130,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor is seeking a local political analyst to author timely political reports and forecasts, focusing on swing-state races and current political dynamics. You will judge polling results, forecast win probabilities, and assess market-implied odds from a fixed evidence cutoff.

Ideal candidates have deep US race experience, strong polling literacy, and a track record of live, evidence-based judgments. The role emphasizes on-the-ground knowledge and rigorous evaluation of model analyses.

Qualifications

• Hands-on experience on specific US races in swing states.
• On-the-ground knowledge of electorate, candidates, and local environment.
• Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Polling literacy

Forecasting judgment

Live decision making

US political knowledge

Education

8+ years direct US race experience

Job description

Mercor is seeking a local political analyst to author timely political reports and forecasts, focusing on swing-state races and current political dynamics. You will judge polling results, forecast win probabilities, and assess market-implied odds from a fixed evidence cutoff.

Ideal candidates have deep US race experience, strong polling literacy, and a track record of live, evidence-based judgments. The role emphasizes on-the-ground knowledge and rigorous evaluation of model analyses.