Swing-State Political Risk & AI Forecasting Expert

Mercor; Washington (District of Columbia); On-site; USD 110,000 - 170,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.

This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

Qualifications

• Minimum 8+ years of direct experience in US political races.
• Strong polling literacy and probabilistic judgment.
• On-the-ground knowledge of swing-state electorates and local environments.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standards.

Job description

Mercor is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.

This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.