Senior Elections Forecaster & Political Risk Analyst

Mercor; San Francisco (CA); Remote; USD 120,000 - 160,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor in San Francisco seeks a senior elections forecaster to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a fixed evidence cutoff. You will reason from data, document directional judgments on polling and win probabilities, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events and market impacts.

Applicants should have 8+ years in forecasting, polling analysis, or political risk, with a demonstrated ability to make live judgments under tight deadlines and to review model outputs against

Qualifications

• Senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst.
• Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• Typically 8+ years of direct experience.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Forecasting expertise

Polling literacy

Causal analysis

Decision judgment

Job description

Mercor in San Francisco seeks a senior elections forecaster to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a fixed evidence cutoff. You will reason from data, document directional judgments on polling and win probabilities, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events and market impacts.

Applicants should have 8+ years in forecasting, polling analysis, or political risk, with a demonstrated ability to make live judgments under tight deadlines and to review model outputs against