Prediction Markets Trader: Real-Time Quant Arbitrage

DRW; Chicago, New York (IL, NY); On-site; USD 175,000 - 200,000; Full time

Job summary

DRW in Chicago seeks a Prediction Markets Trader to develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction binary event trading strategies across Polymarket and Kalshi. You’ll manage a live portfolio, using market making, arbitrage, and statistical models to pursue positive expectancy in thin, volatile markets.

You’ll backtest models with historical tick data, work with engineering on low-latency APIs, and bring rigorous quantitative methods to decision making, risk, and execution.

Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree or higher in a quantitative field.
• Solid probability, statistics, and time-series analysis skills.
• Hands-on experience with prediction market platforms or related domains.
• Demonstrated interest in prediction markets through personal trading or modeling.

Responsibilities

• Monitor and trade markets in real time across Polymarket and Kalshi.
• Execute strategies: market making, arbitrage, and mean reversion.
• Develop and backtest models using historical tick data and Bayesian updates.
• Collaborate with engineering on low-latency infrastructure and APIs.

Skills

Probability basics

Statistics

Time-series analysis

Bayesian methods

Prediction market platforms knowledge

Education

Bachelor's degree or higher in Quantitative Finance/Statistics/CS/Economics/Math

Tools

Polymarket API

Kalshi API

FIX protocol

WebSocket

REST APIs

ethers.js

Polygon RPC

Job description

DRW in Chicago seeks a Prediction Markets Trader to develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction binary event trading strategies across Polymarket and Kalshi. You’ll manage a live portfolio, using market making, arbitrage, and statistical models to pursue positive expectancy in thin, volatile markets.

You’ll backtest models with historical tick data, work with engineering on low-latency APIs, and bring rigorous quantitative methods to decision making, risk, and execution.