Prediction Markets Trader

talisman; United States; On-site; USD 150,000 - 270,000; Full time

Job summary

Talisman seeks a Prediction Markets Trader to join our growing prop trading team, building out prediction markets capabilities. You will develop and execute strategies across binary and event-driven markets, combining quantitative analysis, market microstructure and real-time information to identify mispriced probabilities and trading opportunities.

You will trade and manage risk across prediction markets, backtest models, analyze order flow, and collaborate with researchers and engineers to

Qualifications

• Strong foundation in probability and statistics for trading decisions.
• Proficient in building and validating quantitative models.
• Experience with trading across prediction and event-driven markets.

Responsibilities

• Trade and manage risk across prediction and event-driven markets.
• Develop strategies across market making, arbitrage, event momentum and statistical trading.
• Build and backtest models to estimate fair value and identify market inefficiencies.
• Analyze order flow, market microstructure, news and alternative data in real time.
• Collaborate with researchers and engineers to improve execution and infrastructure.

Skills

Python

Quantitative modelling

Probability & statistics

Trading & risk management

Market making

Arbitrage

Event-driven trading

Backtesting

Polymarket/Kalshi experience

Real-time data analysis

Tools

Polymarket/Kalshi

Job description

We are seeking a Prediction Markets Trader to join a growing proprietary trading business and help build out its prediction markets capabilities.

The successful candidate will develop and execute strategies across binary and event-driven markets, combining quantitative analysis, market microstructure and real-time information to identify mispriced probabilities and trading opportunities.

Prediction Markets Trader responsibilities:

• Trade and manage risk across prediction and event-driven markets.
• Develop strategies across market making, arbitrage, event momentum and statistical trading.
• Build and backtest models to estimate fair value and identify market inefficiencies.
• Analyze order flow, market microstructure, news and alternative data in real time.
• Work closely with quantitative researchers and engineers to improve execution and trading infrastructure.
• Strong understanding of probability, statistics and quantitative trading.
• Experience trading prediction markets such as Polymarket/Kalshi, or closely related options, sports/event or event-driven markets.
• Python and quantitative modelling experience.
• Demonstrated interest in prediction markets and event-based trading.
• Prior profitable trading experience and/or a demonstrable track record strongly preferred.