Prediction Markets Trader

DRW; Chicago, New York (IL, NY); On-site; USD 175,000 - 200,000; Full time

Job summary

DRW in Chicago seeks a Prediction Markets Trader to develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction binary event trading strategies across Polymarket and Kalshi. You’ll manage a live portfolio, using market making, arbitrage, and statistical models to pursue positive expectancy in thin, volatile markets.

You’ll backtest models with historical tick data, work with engineering on low-latency APIs, and bring rigorous quantitative methods to decision making, risk, and execution.

Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree or higher in a quantitative field.
• Solid probability, statistics, and time-series analysis skills.
• Hands-on experience with prediction market platforms or related domains.
• Demonstrated interest in prediction markets through personal trading or modeling.

Responsibilities

• Monitor and trade markets in real time across Polymarket and Kalshi.
• Execute strategies: market making, arbitrage, and mean reversion.
• Develop and backtest models using historical tick data and Bayesian updates.
• Collaborate with engineering on low-latency infrastructure and APIs.

Skills

Probability basics

Statistics

Time-series analysis

Bayesian methods

Prediction market platforms knowledge

Education

Bachelor's degree or higher in Quantitative Finance/Statistics/CS/Economics/Math

Tools

Polymarket API

Kalshi API

FIX protocol

WebSocket

REST APIs

ethers.js

Polygon RPC

Job description

DRW is a major Chicago-based proprietary trading firm founded in 1992 by Don Wilson, specializing in diversified, technology-driven market-making and quantitative trading across asset classes including fixed income, options, derivatives, commodities, energy, equities, FX, and cryptocurrency.

DRW is building out a dedicated prediction markets desk focused on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. As a Prediction Markets Trader, you will develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction trading strategies in binary event contracts. You will manage a live portfolio, targeting consistent positive expectancy through market making, microstructure exploitation, cross-platform arbitrage, and statistical models. This role requires genuine, demonstrated passion for prediction markets, strong quantitative reasoning, and the ability to operate in thin, volatile, event-resolution-driven environments.

Core Responsibilities:

• Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket (CLOB/Gamma/Subgraph APIs) and Kalshi (FIX/WebSocket/REST).
• Execute strategies including market making with dynamic skew, microstructure arbitrage, cross-platform arbitrage, and statistical pairs/mean reversion.
• Develop and backtest models using historical tick data, Bayesian probability updates, and machine learning for fair-value estimation.
• Collaborate with engineering on low-latency infrastructure, including API integrations, order engines, and anomaly detection.

Required Qualifications:

• Bachelor's or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, or equivalent.
• Solid foundation in probability, statistics, time-series analysis, and Bayesian methods.
• Hands-on experience with prediction market platforms (Polymarket and/or Kalshi APIs) or closely related domains (options, binary events, sports betting).
• Demonstrated interest in prediction markets through personal trading, studying market mechanics, building models, or similar activities.

Highly Valued (but not strictly required):

• Prior profitable trading experience in prediction markets, options, or related markets, whether personal or professional.
• Familiarity with blockchain/DeFi tools (ethers.js, Polygon RPC, USDC wallets).
• Experience with low-latency systems, FIX protocol, or Web3 integrations.
• Track record of building and backtesting quantitative models with real historical data.
• Knowledge of prediction market categories such as politics, macroeconomics, climate, and sports.

Who We’re Looking For: We are especially interested in exceptionally sharp, self-motivated individuals - including strong campus hires and new graduates - who are obsessed with prediction markets and can demonstrate clear, substantive engagement with the space. If you’ve been actively trading Polymarket/Kalshi, analyzing resolutions, building personal models, or following the ecosystem closely, we want to talk to you.

The annual base salary range for this position is $175,000 to $200,000 depending on the candidate’s experience, qualifications, and relevant skill set. The position is also eligible for an annual discretionary bonus. In addition, DRW offers a comprehensive suite of employee benefits including group medical, pharmacy, dental and vision insurance, 401k (with discretionary employer match), short and long-term disability, life and AD&D insurance, health savings accounts, and flexible spending accounts.

As set forth in DRW ’s Equal Employment Opportunity policy,we do not discriminate on the basis of any protected group status under any applicable law.

For more information about DRW's processing activities and our use of job applicants' data, please view our Privacy Notice at https://drw.com/privacy-notice .