Prediction Markets Trader

DRW Holdings, LLC.; Chicago (IL); Hybrid; USD 175,000 - 200,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Comprehensive medical, dental, and vision insurance

401k with discretionary employer match

Short and long-term disability insurance

Flexible spending accounts

Job summary

A major proprietary trading firm is seeking a Prediction Markets Trader based in Chicago, IL. You will develop and optimize high-conviction trading strategies using dynamic market analysis and backtesting. This role requires expertise in probability and statistics, along with hands-on experience in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. The ideal candidate will have a genuine passion for prediction markets and a proven track record in quantitative trading. The annual salary ranges from $175,000 to $200,000, with a comprehensive benefits package.

Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree or higher in relevant quantitative fields.
• Strong understanding of probability and statistics.
• Experience with prediction market platforms preferred.

Responsibilities

• Monitor and trade active markets in real time.
• Execute market making and arbitrage strategies.
• Develop and backtest quantitative models.

Skills

Quantitative analysis

Market making

Probability

Statistical modeling

Bayesian methods

Event-driven strategies

Education

Bachelor's or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics

Tools

Polymarket APIs

Kalshi APIs

FIX protocol

Web3 integrations

Job description

Jobs Locations Chicago , Greenwich , New York City , Remote

Employment type Full-time

Department Campus , Trading

Targeted Start Date Immediate

DRW is a major Chicago-based proprietary trading firm founded in 1992 by Don Wilson, specializing in diversified, technology-driven market-making and quantitative trading across asset classes including fixed income, options, derivatives, commodities, energy, equities, FX, and cryptocurrency.

DRW is building out a dedicated prediction markets desk focused on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. As a Prediction Markets Trader, you will develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction trading strategies in binary event contracts. You will manage a live portfolio, targeting consistent positive expectancy through market making, microstructure exploitation, cross-platform arbitrage, event-driven momentum, and statistical models. This role requires genuine, demonstrated passion for prediction markets, strong quantitative reasoning, and the ability to operate in thin, volatile, event-resolution-driven environments.

Core Responsibilities

• Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket (CLOB/Gamma/Subgraph APIs) and Kalshi (FIX/WebSocket/REST).
• Execute strategies including: market making with dynamic skew, microstructure arbitrage (order‑flow and book‑imbalance sniping), cross‑platform arb, news/event momentum (sub‑second reaction), and statistical pairs/mean‑reversion.
• Develop and backtest models using historical tick data, Bayesian probability updates, NLP sentiment parsing, and ML for fair‑value estimation.
• Collaborate with engineering on low‑latency infrastructure (API integrations, order engines, anomaly detection).

Required Qualifications

• Bachelor's or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, or equivalent.
• Solid foundation in probability, statistics, time‑series analysis, and Bayesian methods.
• Hands‑on experience with prediction market platforms (Polymarket and/or Kalshi APIs) or closely related domains (options, binary events, sports/event betting).
• Genuine, demonstrated interest in prediction markets — we expect you to be actively engaged with the space (personal trading, deep reading of protocols, following major resolutions, contributing to discussions, etc.). This is non‑negotiable.

Highly Valued (but not strictly required)

• Prior profitable trading experience in prediction markets, options, or event‑driven strategies (personal or professional).
• Familiarity with blockchain/DeFi tools (ethers.js, Polygon RPC, USDC wallets).
• Experience with low‑latency systems, FIX protocol, or Web3 integrations.
• Track record of building and backtesting quantitative models with real historical data.
• Deep domain knowledge of high‑impact events (politics, macroeconomics, climate, sports).

Who We’re Looking For

We are especially interested in exceptionally sharp, self‑motivated individuals — including strong campus hires and new graduates — who are obsessed with prediction markets and can demonstrate clear, substantive engagement with the space. If you’ve been actively trading Polymarket/Kalshi, analyzing resolutions, building personal models, or following the ecosystem closely, we want to talk to you.

Location

Flexible. US‑based preferred.

Pay and Benefits

The annual base salary range for this position is $175,000 to $200,000 depending on the candidate’s experience, qualifications, and relevant skill set. The position is also eligible for an annual discretionary bonus. DRW offers a comprehensive suite of employee benefits including group medical, pharmacy, dental and vision insurance, 401k (with discretionary employer match), short and long‑term disability, life and AD&D insurance, health savings accounts, and flexible spending accounts.