Prediction Markets Trader

Trading Interview; Northern (KY); Hybrid; USD 175,000 - 200,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Health insurance

401k plan

Disability insurance

Life insurance

HSA

FSA

Job summary

DRW, a Chicago-based proprietary trading firm, is building a dedicated prediction markets desk. As a Prediction Markets Trader, you will develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction strategies in binary event contracts and manage a live portfolio to target positive expectancy across Polymarket and Kalshi ecosystems.

The role demands strong quantitative reasoning, hands-on evaluation of market signals, and the ability to operate in thin, volatile event-driven environments.

Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, or equivalent.
• Strong foundation in probability, statistics, time-series analysis, and Bayesian methods.
• Hands-on experience with prediction market platforms (Polymarket and Kalshi APIs) or related domains.
• Genuine, demonstrated interest in prediction markets and active engagement with the space.

Responsibilities

• Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket and Kalshi.
• Execute strategies including market making with dynamic skew, microstructure arbitrage, cross-platform arb, momentum, and mean-reversion.
• Develop and backtest models using tick data, Bayesian updates, NLP sentiment parsing, and ML for fair-value estimation.
• Collaborate with engineering on low-latency infrastructure and API integrations.

Job description

DRW is a major Chicago-based proprietary trading firm founded in 1992 by Don Wilson, specializing in diversified, technology-driven market-making and quantitative trading across asset classes including fixed income, options, derivatives, commodities, energy, equities, FX, and cryptocurrency.

DRW is building out a dedicated prediction markets desk focused on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. As a Prediction Markets Trader, you will develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction trading strategies in binary event contracts. You will manage a live portfolio, targeting consistent positive expectancy through market making, microstructure exploitation, cross-platform arbitrage, event-driven momentum, and statistical models. This role requires genuine, demonstrated passion for prediction markets, strong quantitative reasoning, and the ability to operate in thin, volatile, event-resolution-driven environments.

Core Responsibilities:

• Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket (CLOB/Gamma/Subgraph APIs) and Kalshi (FIX/WebSocket/REST).
• Execute strategies including: market making with dynamic skew, microstructure arbitrage (order-flow and book-imbalance sniping), cross-platform arb, news/event momentum (sub-second reaction), and statistical pairs/mean-reversion.
• Develop and backtest models using historical tick data, Bayesian probability updates, NLP sentiment parsing, and ML for fair-value estimation.
• Collaborate with engineering on low-latency infrastructure (API integrations, order engines, anomaly detection).

Required Qualifications:

• Bachelor's or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, or equivalent.
• Solid foundation in probability, statistics, time-series analysis, and Bayesian methods.
• Hands‑on experience with prediction market platforms (Polymarket and/or Kalshi APIs) or closely related domains (options, binary events, sports/event betting).
• Genuine, demonstrated interest in prediction markets — we expect you to be actively engaged with the space (personal trading, deep reading of protocols, following major resolutions, contributing to discussions, etc.). This is non‑negotiable.

Highly Valued (but not strictly required):

• Prior profitable trading experience in prediction markets, options, or event‑driven strategies (personal or professional).
• Familiarity with blockchain/DeFi tools (ethers.js, Polygon RPC, USDC wallets).
• Experience with low‑latency systems, FIX protocol, or Web3 integrations.
• Track record of building and backtesting quantitative models with real historical data.
• Deep domain knowledge of high-impact events (politics, macroeconomics, climate, sports).

Who We’re Looking For:

We are especially interested in exceptionally sharp, self‑motivated individuals — including strong campus hires and new graduates — who are obsessed with prediction markets and can demonstrate clear, substantive engagement with the space. If you’ve been actively trading Polymarket/Kalshi, analyzing resolutions, building personal models, or following the ecosystem closely, we want to talk to you.

Applications reviewed on a rolling basis. Strong candidates will receive a technical screen, strategy discussion, and live coding/modeling exercise focused on real prediction market scenarios.

Location:

Flexible. US-based preferred.

The annual base salary range for this position is $175,000 to $200,000 depending on the candidate’s experience, qualifications, and relevant skill set. The position is also eligible for an annual discretionary bonus.

• Group medical, pharmacy, dental and vision insurance
• 401k (with discretionary employer match)
• Short and long‑term disability
• Life and AD&D insurance
• Health savings accounts
• Flexible spending accounts

For more information about DRW's processing activities and our use of job applicants' data, please view our Privacy Notice at https://drw.com/privacy-notice .

This description was published by DRW. Applications are handled on their careers site: we are not the employer and cannot process them.

DRW is a team of innovative and ambitious individuals who use the power of free markets to solve challenging problems, capture opportunities, and pursue positive change. In 1992, the founder…