Prediction Markets Trader: Real-Time, Data-Driven

Trading Interview; Chicago (IL); Hybrid; USD 175,000 - 200,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Health insurance

401k plan

Disability insurance

Life insurance

HSA

FSA

Job summary

DRW, a Chicago-based proprietary trading firm, is building a dedicated prediction markets desk. As a Prediction Markets Trader, you will develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction strategies in binary event contracts and manage a live portfolio to target positive expectancy across Polymarket and Kalshi ecosystems.

The role demands strong quantitative reasoning, hands-on evaluation of market signals, and the ability to operate in thin, volatile event-driven environments.

Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, or equivalent.
• Strong foundation in probability, statistics, time-series analysis, and Bayesian methods.
• Hands-on experience with prediction market platforms (Polymarket and Kalshi APIs) or related domains.
• Genuine, demonstrated interest in prediction markets and active engagement with the space.

Responsibilities

• Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket and Kalshi.
• Execute strategies including market making with dynamic skew, microstructure arbitrage, cross-platform arb, momentum, and mean-reversion.
• Develop and backtest models using tick data, Bayesian updates, NLP sentiment parsing, and ML for fair-value estimation.
• Collaborate with engineering on low-latency infrastructure and API integrations.

Job description

DRW is a major Chicago-based proprietary trading firm founded in 1992 by Don Wilson, specializing in diversified, technology-driven market-making and quantitative trading across asset classes including fixed income, options, derivatives, commodities, energy, equities, FX, and cryptocurrency.

DRW is building out a dedicated prediction markets desk focused on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. As a Prediction Markets Trader, you will develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction trading strategies in binary event contracts. You will manage a live portfolio, targeting consistent positive expectancy through market making, microstructure exploitation, cross-platform arbitrage, and statistical models. This role requires genuine, demonstrated passion for prediction markets, strong quantitative reasoning, and the ability to operate in thin, volatile, event-resolution-driven environments.

Core Responsibilities:

• Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket (CLOB/Gamma/Subgraph APIs) and Kalshi (FIX/WebSocket/REST).
• Execute strategies including market making with dynamic skew, microstructure arbitrage, cross-platform arbitrage, and statistical pairs/mean reversion.
• Develop and backtest models using historical tick data, Bayesian probability updates, and machine learning for fair-value estimation.
• Collaborate with engineering on low-latency infrastructure, including API integrations, order engines, and anomaly detection.

Required Qualifications:

• Bachelor's or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, or equivalent.
• Solid foundation in probability, statistics, time-series analysis, and Bayesian methods.
• Hands-on experience with prediction market platforms (Polymarket and/or Kalshi APIs) or closely related domains (options, binary events, sports betting).
• Demonstrated interest in prediction markets through personal trading, studying market mechanics, building models, or similar activities.

Highly Valued (but not strictly required):

• Prior profitable trading experience in prediction markets, options, or related markets, whether personal or professional.
• Familiarity with blockchain/DeFi tools (ethers.js, Polygon RPC, USDC wallets).
• Experience with low-latency systems, FIX protocol, or Web3 integrations.
• Track record of building and backtesting quantitative models with real historical data.
• Knowledge of prediction market categories such as politics, macroeconomics, climate, and sports.

Who We’re Looking For: We are especially interested in exceptionally sharp, self-motivated individuals — including strong campus hires and new graduates — who are obsessed with prediction markets and can demonstrate clear, substantive engagement with the space. If you’ve been actively trading Polymarket/Kalshi, analyzing resolutions, building personal models, or following the ecosystem closely, we want to talk to you.

Apply With:

• Resume
• Cover letter detailing your interest in prediction markets, with specific examples such as trades you’ve made, resolutions you’ve studied, models you’ve built, or protocols you follow
• GitHub, personal blog, or portfolio links showing relevant work

Applications are reviewed on a rolling basis. Strong candidates will receive a technical screen, strategy discussion, and live coding/modeling exercise focused on real prediction market scenarios.

The annual base salary range for this position is $175,000 to $200,000 depending on the candidate’s experience, qualifications, and relevant skill set. The position is also eligible for an annual discretionary bonus. In addition, DRW offers a comprehensive suite of employee benefits including group medical, pharmacy, dental and vision insurance, 401k (with discretionary employer match), short and long-term disability, life and AD&D insurance, health savings accounts, and flexible spending accounts.

For more information about DRW's processing activities and our use of job applicants' data, please view our Privacy Notice at https://drw.com/privacy-notice .

This description was published by DRW. Applications are handled on their careers site: we are not the employer and cannot process them.

DRW is a Chicago-based trading firm founded in 1992 by Don Wilson, who started it while trading Eurodollar options in the pit at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and still leads…

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