Prediction Markets Trader

DRW; United States; On-site; USD 175,000 - 200,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

401(k) with discretionary employer match

Health insurance

Flexible spending accounts

Job summary

A major trading firm in the United States is seeking a Prediction Markets Trader to develop and optimize trading strategies in binary event contracts. This role involves managing a live portfolio, trading across platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, and requires a strong foundation in quantitative analysis and genuine interest in prediction markets. Ideal candidates will have relevant finance or quantitative degrees and demonstrated engagement in the prediction markets space. Our firm offers a competitive compensation package with substantial benefits.

Qualifications

• Strong foundation in probability, time-series analysis, and Bayesian methods.
• Hands-on experience with prediction market platforms or closely related domains.
• Demonstrated genuine interest in prediction markets.

Responsibilities

• Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket and Kalshi.
• Execute dynamic skew market making and cross-platform arbitrage strategies.
• Develop and backtest models using historical tick data and ML for fair-value estimation.

Skills

Prediction markets engagement

Quantitative reasoning

Statistical models

Education

Bachelor's or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics

Tools

Polymarket API

Kalshi API

Job description

DRW is a major Chicago-based proprietary trading firm founded in 1992 by Don Wilson, specializing in diversified, technology-driven market-making and quantitative trading across asset classes including fixed income, options, derivatives, commodities, energy, equities, FX, and cryptocurrency.

DRW is building out a dedicated prediction markets desk focused on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. As a Prediction Markets Trader, you will develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction trading strategies in binary event contracts. You will manage a live portfolio, targeting consistent positive expectancy through market making, microstructure exploitation, cross-platform arbitrage, event-driven momentum, and statistical models. This role requires genuine, demonstrated passion for prediction markets, strong quantitative reasoning, and the ability to operate in thin, volatile, event-resolution-driven environments.

Core Responsibilities

• Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket (CLOB/Gamma/Subgraph APIs) and Kalshi (FIX/WebSocket/REST).
• Execute strategies including market making with dynamic skew, microstructure arbitrage (order-flow and book-imbalance sniping), cross-platform arb, news/event momentum (sub-second reaction), and statistical pairs/mean-reversion.
• Develop and backtest models using historical tick data, Bayesian probability updates, NLP sentiment parsing, and ML for fair-value estimation.
• Collaborate with engineering on low-latency infrastructure (API integrations, order engines, anomaly detection).

Required Qualifications

• Bachelor's or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, or equivalent.
• Solid foundation in probability, statistics, time-series analysis, and Bayesian methods.
• Hands-on experience with prediction market platforms (Polymarket and/or Kalshi APIs) or closely related domains (options, binary events, sports/event betting).
• Genuine, demonstrated interest in prediction markets — we expect you to be actively engaged with the space (personal trading, deep reading of protocols, following major resolutions, contributing to discussions, etc.). This is non-negotiable.

Highly Valued (but not strictly required)

• Prior profitable trading experience in prediction markets, options, or event-driven strategies (personal or professional).
• Familiarity with blockchain/DeFi tools (ethers.js, Polygon RPC, USDC wallets).
• Experience with low-latency systems, FIX protocol, or Web3 integrations.
• Track record of building and backtesting quantitative models with real historical data.
• Deep domain knowledge of high-impact events (politics, macroeconomics, climate, sports).

Who We’re Looking For

We are especially interested in exceptionally sharp, self-motivated individuals — including strong campus hires and new graduates — who are obsessed with prediction markets and can demonstrate clear, substantive engagement with the space. If you’ve been actively trading Polymarket/Kalshi, analyzing resolutions, building personal models, or following the ecosystem closely, we want to talk to you.

Apply With

• Resume
• Cover letter explicitly detailing your genuine interest in prediction markets (specific examples of your engagement: trades you’ve made, resolutions you’ve studied, models you’ve built, protocols you follow, etc.)
• GitHub, personal blog, or portfolio links showing relevant work

Applications reviewed on a rolling basis. Strong candidates will receive a technical screen, strategy discussion, and live coding/modeling exercise focused on real prediction market scenarios.

Location

Flexible. US-based preferred.

Compensation & Benefits

The annual base salary range for this position is $175,000 to $200,000 depending on the candidate’s experience, qualifications, and relevant skill set. The position is also eligible for an annual discretionary bonus. DRW offers a comprehensive suite of employee benefits including group medical, pharmacy, dental and vision insurance, 401(k) (with discretionary employer match), short and long-term disability, life and AD&D insurance, health savings accounts, and flexible spending accounts.

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Equal Employment Opportunity

As set forth in DRW ’s Equal Employment Opportunity policy, we do not discriminate on the basis of any protected group status under any applicable law.

Veteran Status

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Disability Status

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