Iowa Elections Forecasting Expert — Remote

Benture; Iowa; Remote; USD 138,000 - 276,000; Full time

Job summary

Mercor is seeking a Local Political Expert for Iowa to craft point-in-time political reports and forecasts with a fixed evidence cutoff. You will judge polling directions and win probabilities, and explain how events impact political and market outcomes.

Applicants should have hands-on experience with specific Iowa races, deep knowledge of the electorate, and a track record of live forecasting rather than retrospective commentary. This is an hourly remote contract role in the United States.

Qualifications

• Experience with live US political races, especially Iowa.
• Strong ability to judge polling and win probabilities in real time.
• Ability to explain how events affect political and market outcomes.
• Proven track record judging polling and probabilistic outcomes in past cycles.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Swing-state experience

Polling literacy

Forecasting judgment

Causal event analysis

Education

Political science / related field

Job description

Mercor is seeking a Local Political Expert for Iowa to craft point-in-time political reports and forecasts with a fixed evidence cutoff. You will judge polling directions and win probabilities, and explain how events impact political and market outcomes.

Applicants should have hands-on experience with specific Iowa races, deep knowledge of the electorate, and a track record of live forecasting rather than retrospective commentary. This is an hourly remote contract role in the United States.