Senior Elections Forecaster & Political Risk Analyst

Obsidian; New York (NY); On-site; USD 120,000 - 190,000; Full time

Job summary

Obsidian is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.

This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events. You will draft point-in-time forecasts and explain the causal mechanisms behind events' political

Qualifications

• 8+ years of direct experience in elections forecasting, polling, or political risk analysis.
• Experience making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Election forecasting

Polling analysis

Statistical methodology

Job description

Obsidian is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.

This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events. You will draft point-in-time forecasts and explain the causal mechanisms behind events' political