Political Forecasting And Risk Analysis Expert

OpenTrain AI; Northern (KY); Hybrid; USD 207,000 - 344,000; Part time

Benefits offered by this job

Remote contract and part-time

English-language work

Job summary

OpenTrain AI is seeking a political forecasting and risk analysis expert to produce point-in-time political reports covering elections, polling, and political-risk events. You will use only the evidence available at a defined cutoff, combining live probabilistic judgment, causal analysis, and rigorous review of model-generated political research.

The role requires disciplined reasoning without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.

Qualifications

• Eight or more years of direct forecasting experience.
• Background in election forecasting, polling, or political-risk analysis.
• Live forecasting judgments over retrospective commentary.

Responsibilities

• Author political reports from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Document directional judgments about polling and odds.
• Explain how events affect political and market outcomes.
• Review model-generated analyses against an analytic standard.
• Apply point-in-time reasoning without hindsight.
• Avoid confidential or non-public information.

Skills

Live forecasting

Polling literacy

Statistical method

Causal analysis

Model evaluation

English proficiency

Job description

About OpenTrain

OpenTrain is the leading platform for finding and building careers in AI training and data labeling. OpenTrain AI is recruiting contractors for specialized work that helps improve modern AI systems while giving experts a profile and portfolio they can build over time.

Creating an OpenTrain account is free, and contributors can discover opportunities that match their experience, apply in minutes, and develop a durable record of AI training work.

• Remote contract and part-time opportunity
• Build a professional AI training portfolio through OpenTrain

About AI Training Work

AI training is the human side of building artificial intelligence. Experts create research examples, assess model-generated responses, and provide the careful judgments that help AI systems become more accurate, useful, and reliable.

In this role, your political analysis and forecasting expertise will be applied to expert-authored research data and evaluation tasks for AI models focused on political and financial analysis.

• Contribute to cutting-edge AI development
• Use specialized professional judgment rather than routine data entry
• Work remotely with flexible part-time scheduling

The Role

OpenTrain is seeking a political forecasting and risk analysis expert to produce point-in-time political reports covering elections, polling, and political-risk events. You will use only the evidence available at a defined cutoff, combining live probabilistic judgment, causal analysis, and rigorous review of model-generated political research.

The role requires disciplined reasoning without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information. The default work commitment is at least 20 hours per week.

• Hourly compensation: $150-$250 USD
• Contractor engagement
• Part-time remote work
• English-language work

What You'll Do

You will author and evaluate political analysis in a way that makes assumptions, evidence, probabilities, and expected outcomes clear. Your work will be assessed against a consistent expert analytical standard.

• Author political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain how political events are expected to affect political and market outcomes
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own analytical standard
• Apply point-in-time reasoning without hindsight or data leakage
• Avoid using confidential information or material non-public information

Requirements And Relevant Experience

This role is intended for an experienced practitioner with a demonstrated record of making live forecasting judgments, not only retrospective political commentary. Typically, candidates will have eight or more years of direct experience, although unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance may also be relevant.

Relevant backgrounds include election forecasting, campaign strategy, polling, statistical methodology, or political-risk analysis. Direct performance on comparable forecasting work matters more than a particular employer or credential.

• Senior experience as an elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling expert, statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst
• Demonstrated live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds
• Strong polling literacy and statistical-methodology reasoning
• Strong causal analysis of political events and expected market impact
• Experience evaluating model-generated political analyses
• Experience with presidential, Senate, or governor races can be useful
• Experience at national polling organizations, decision desks, senior campaign analytics teams, banks, funds, or specialist political-risk firms can be useful

Eligible Locations

This opportunity is available to contractors located in the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Cyprus, Czechia, Germany, Denmark, Estonia, Spain, Finland, France, United Kingdom, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, Slovenia, Slovakia, and the United States.

• Worldwide availability is not offered for this role
• English is the required working language