Prediction Markets Trader

talisman; United States; On-site; USD 120,000 - 180,000; Full time

Job summary

Talisman seeks a Prediction Markets Trader to join its growing trading business and help build out its prediction markets capabilities. You will develop and execute strategies across binary and event-driven markets, combining quantitative analysis, market microstructure and real-time information to identify mispriced probabilities and trading opportunities.

The role emphasizes building models, backtesting, and collaborating with researchers and engineers to improve execution and infrastructure,

Qualifications

• Strong understanding of probability, statistics and quantitative trading.
• Demonstrated interest in prediction markets and event-based trading.
• Prior profitable trading experience and/or a demonstrable track record strongly preferred.

Responsibilities

• Trade and manage risk across prediction and event-driven markets.
• Develop strategies across market making, arbitrage, event momentum and statistical trading.
• Build and backtest models to estimate fair value and identify market inefficiencies.
• Analyze order flow, market microstructure, news and alternative data in real time.
• Work closely with quantitative researchers and engineers to improve execution and trading infrastructure.

Skills

Probability & Statistics

Quantitative trading

Market making & arbitrage

Event-driven trading

Python

Tools

Python

Backtesting

Job description

We are seeking a Prediction Markets Trader to join a growing proprietary trading business and help build out its prediction markets capabilities.

The successful candidate will develop and execute strategies across binary and event-driven markets, combining quantitative analysis, market microstructure and real-time information to identify mispriced probabilities and trading opportunities.

Prediction Markets Trader responsibilities:

• Trade and manage risk across prediction and event-driven markets.
• Develop strategies across market making, arbitrage, event momentum and statistical trading.
• Build and backtest models to estimate fair value and identify market inefficiencies.
• Analyze order flow, market microstructure, news and alternative data in real time.
• Work closely with quantitative researchers and engineers to improve execution and trading infrastructure.
• Strong understanding of probability, statistics and quantitative trading.
• Experience trading prediction markets such as Polymarket/Kalshi, or closely related options, sports/event or event-driven markets.
• Python and quantitative modelling experience.
• Demonstrated interest in prediction markets and event-based trading.
• Prior profitable trading experience and/or a demonstrable track record strongly preferred.