Passenger Forecast Manager

South Western News UK; Greater London; On-site; GBP 65,000 - 90,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Free duty travel

Free leisure travel for family

Discount on other train companies

Training and development

Pension scheme

Job summary

South Western Railway (SWR) is seeking a Passenger Forecast Manager to lead robust passenger revenue and demand forecasting for budgeting and long-term plans.

You will monitor revenue performance, identify drivers of variance, and collaborate with the revenue reporting team to deliver best-in-class reporting and insights. This role requires advanced analytics and strong stakeholder engagement across the business and industry.

Qualifications

• Expert knowledge of rail demand forecasting, including the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook framework and its limitations.
• Advanced analytics with strong numerical skills and evidence-based conclusions.
• Ability to translate complex data into clear management information.
• Excellent verbal and written communication to explain complex concepts.

Responsibilities

• Produce robust passenger revenue and demand forecasts for budgeting and long-term plans.
• Monitor and report on revenue performance, identifying trends and risks.
• Develop revenue models and forecasting tools to meet business needs.
• Collaborate with stakeholders to create actionable initiatives to drive revenue growth.
• Represent SWR with industry bodies and share best practices.

Skills

Rail demand forecasting

Analytical thinking

Data analysis with large datasets

PowerBI/SQL/Python/R

Excel modelling

Stakeholder engagement

Communication skills

MOIRA/ORCATS/Cubic knowledge

Lennon data knowledge

Tools

PowerBI

SQL

Python

R

Job description

Our Company:

South Western Railway (SWR) operates over 1,500 services each weekday across the network and employs more than 5,000 people. We provide easy and convenient mobility, connecting people and communities in South West London, southern counties of England, and the Isle of Wight.

About the job:

The Passenger Forecast Manager is responsible for producing robust and accurate passenger revenue and demand forecasts for budgeting and long-term business plans. This is a specialist role for an expert in rail demand forecasting or an individual with advanced analytical and numerical skills and experience of building complex models for forecasting. The role is responsible for the monitoring, analysis and reporting on passenger revenue performance, quantifying the causes of variance from forecast and identifying and understanding key trends. You will work closely with the revenue reporting team to lead, train and coach analysts to enable the team to deliver the best-in-class revenue reporting. You will liaise and work with key stakeholders within the businesses to develop our understanding of our customers and markets. You will identify, develop and communicate insightful analysis, leading to actionable initiatives to drive revenue growth, and work with stakeholders across the industry to ensure forecasting and reporting meets the needs of SWR and DFTO. This is a key role in fulfilling SWR's purpose as it supports the business in understanding the impacts on passenger behaviour, demand and revenue generation of initiatives to bring people together to get the most out of life.

As Passenger Forecast Manager, you will be responsible for:

• Producing robust passenger revenue and demand forecasts for budgeting and long-term business plans. Ensuring forecasts meet both the owning group and DfT requirements.
• Monitor, analyse and report on passenger revenue performance, quantifying the causes of variance from budget (and forecast), identifying and understanding key trends, and highlighting risks and opportunities. Ensuring reporting meets both owning group and DfT requirements.
• Develop the revenue model and accompanying modelling suite to ensure they continue to meet business requirements, adopting a continuous improvement mindset proactively leading on development to ensure methodologies and approached are 'best in class'.
• Develop a planned approach to identifying SWR markets that require in-depth analysis and develop an approach to analysis that will lead to actionable initiatives that drive revenue growth.
• Effectively engage stakeholders across the business working closely with them to produce insightful analysis that identifies opportunities and supports the production of business cases.
• Supporting the analysis and reporting requirements of departments responsible for delivering revenue generative initiatives. Designing KPIs to measure the success of revenue generative initiatives against the benefits included in the forecast, and supporting in assessing the impact on revenue and demand of these initiatives.
• Representing SWR on industry bodies, including PDFC. Suggesting topics for PDFC funded studies that support SWR research requirements.
• Collaboration with counterparts across train operating companies and other industry stakeholders to share best practice and drive continuous improvement to enable the delivery of best practice reporting and forecasting.

Essential requirements:

• Our Passenger Forecast Manager must have expert knowledge of rail demand forecasting, including the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook framework, its limitations and alternatives is essential.
• Advanced inanalytics with excellent numerical skills with an ability to define opportunities and problems, collect and analyse data, establish facts and make evidence-based conclusions.
• Skilled in translating complex data into easy to understand and relevant management information.
• Ability to formulate recommendations, combined with excellent verbal and written communication skills to clearly explain complex concepts to a variety of audiences.
• Commercially aware, and be able to challenge your own and other's thinking.
• Skilled in developing strong working relationships with stakeholders across the business and with counterparts across the industry.
• Analytics experience within the commercial area of the rail industry.
• Ability to prioritize workloads and work to challenging deadlines.
• Drive for continuous improvement
• Expert understanding of Lennon data, and knowledge of rail commercial or operational systems (e.g. MOIRA, ORCATS, Cubic, BT MND)
• Experience in data analytics including: use of very large datasets using tools such as PowerBI/SQL/Python/R.
• Proficient in Microsoft Office applications (including expert level Excel skills with experience designing and building complex Excel models).

Working pattern

As Passenger Forecast Manager, you will work an average of 37 hours per week over 5 days, office hours

The Reward

In return we offer a competitive salary and a variety of valuable benefits, including:

• Free duty and leisure travel on SWR services for employees
• Free leisure travel for spouse/partner and dependants (criteria dependent)
• 75% discount on many other train operating companies
• Full training and support with development
• Excellent pension scheme

We all belong at SWR. Our vision is to provide an inclusive environment for all colleagues, ensuring all candidates have an equal opportunity to access meaningful employment.

We value our differences such as age, gender, LGBTQIA+, ethnicity, religion, and disability. We maintain a zero tolerance towards any form of prejudice towards our colleagues, customers, and future talent.

We celebrate and encourage diversity of thought, progressive ways of working and seeing all our colleagues grow and thrive.

If you require additionalsupport to complete your application due to a disability or neurodivergent condition, for example, dyslexia, dyspraxia, or autism, please follow the links below. We encourage you to share any additional needs you may require so we can provide a fair and equal process for all who apply.

https://exceptionalindividuals.com/neurodiversity/

https://www.healthassured.org/blog/neurodiversity/