Senior Elections Forecaster & Political Risk Analyst

Mercor; Paris; Sur place; EUR 90 000 - 130 000; Plein temps

Résumé du poste

Mercor is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

You will author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff, make directional judgments about polling and odds, explain the causal mechanisms, and review model analyses for accuracy and quality.

Qualifications

• 8+ years of direct experience in elections forecasting, polling, or political risk analysis.
• Ability to make live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.
• Strong literacy in polling and causal event analysis.
• Experience reviewing model analyses against external judgments.

Responsabilités

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Connaissances

Forecasting

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Risk assessment

Statistical methods

R

Python

Outils

R

Python

Description du poste

Mercor is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

You will author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff, make directional judgments about polling and odds, explain the causal mechanisms, and review model analyses for accuracy and quality.