Senior Elections Forecaster & Point-in-Time Analyst

Obsidian; Paris; Sur place; EUR 90 000 - 120 000; Plein temps

Résumé du poste

Obsidian in Paris is seeking a senior elections forecaster to join our political-risk analytics team. You will author point-in-time reports and forecasts from a fixed evidence cutoff, and document directional judgments on polling and odds.

You will review model-generated analyses, grade them against your standards, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events and their political and market impact. This role demands deep forecasting experience and strong analytical rigor.

Qualifications

• 8+ years of direct experience in forecasting or polling.
• Strong polling literacy and probabilistic judgment.
• Experience analyzing political risk events and forecasting outcomes.

Responsabilités

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your standard.

Connaissances

Senior elections forecaster

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Description du poste

Obsidian in Paris is seeking a senior elections forecaster to join our political-risk analytics team. You will author point-in-time reports and forecasts from a fixed evidence cutoff, and document directional judgments on polling and odds.

You will review model-generated analyses, grade them against your standards, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events and their political and market impact. This role demands deep forecasting experience and strong analytical rigor.