Political Analyst - Elections Forecasting

Obsidian; Paris; Sur place; EUR 90 000 - 120 000; Plein temps

Résumé du poste

Obsidian in Paris is seeking a senior elections forecaster to join our political-risk analytics team. You will author point-in-time reports and forecasts from a fixed evidence cutoff, and document directional judgments on polling and odds.

You will review model-generated analyses, grade them against your standards, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events and their political and market impact. This role demands deep forecasting experience and strong analytical rigor.

Qualifications

• 8+ years of direct experience in forecasting or polling.
• Strong polling literacy and probabilistic judgment.
• Experience analyzing political risk events and forecasting outcomes.

Responsabilités

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your standard.

Connaissances

Senior elections forecaster

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Description du poste

About the work

We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.

This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

What you will do

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard

Who we are looking for

• A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst
• A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds — not retrospective commentary
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
• Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance

Backgrounds we look at first: top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate or governor races, and political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.

Not a fit

Pure communications, journalism, or academic profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.

Point-in-time discipline

Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.