Senior Elections Forecaster & Political Risk Analyst

Mercor; Paris; À distance; EUR 90 000 - 130 000; Plein temps

Résumé du poste

Mercor in Paris is seeking a senior elections forecaster to craft point-in-time political reports, forecasts, and analyses from a fixed evidence cutoff.

You will judge polling probabilities, explain causal mechanisms of events, and review model outputs against your own standards.

The ideal candidate has 8+ years of direct experience in forecasting or political risk analysis and a track record of live, probabilistic judgments.

Qualifications

• Senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst.
• 8+ years of direct forecasting or political-risk experience.
• Live judgments about polling, win probabilities or odds.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.

Responsabilités

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a fixed evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standards.

Connaissances

Strong polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Forecasting

Description du poste

Mercor in Paris is seeking a senior elections forecaster to craft point-in-time political reports, forecasts, and analyses from a fixed evidence cutoff.

You will judge polling probabilities, explain causal mechanisms of events, and review model outputs against your own standards.

The ideal candidate has 8+ years of direct experience in forecasting or political risk analysis and a track record of live, probabilistic judgments.