Manager - Business Intelligence and Scenarios

ADNOC Abu Dhabi UAE; Al Ruways Industrial City; On-site; AED 40,000 - 60,000; Full time

Job summary

ADNOC Gas in Abu Dhabi Emirate seeks a senior Manager for Business Intelligence and Scenarios to lead long-range market outlooks and scenario modelling. You will translate macroeconomic, gas, LNG, and energy transition trends into strategic signals for senior leadership and governance over planning horizons of 5–25 years.

The role focuses on portfolio resilience, capital allocation, and decision-ready analysis, ensuring robust assumptions across Strategy, Finance, Marketing and Planning

Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree in a relevant discipline.

Responsibilities

• Lead development of long-term market, demand, supply, price, and profitability outlooks.
• Produce strategic outlooks covering planning horizons from 5 to 25 years.
• Develop macroeconomic scenario models for alternative future environments.
• Build sector-level scenarios reflecting changes in energy demand, supply, regulation, and policy.
• Evaluate energy transition pathways and implications for ADNOC Gas.
• Identify strategic risks and opportunities in global and regional energy markets.
• Translate market developments into implications for corporate strategy.
• Develop a living scenario model for senior leadership use.
• Establish guardrails and early-warning indicators for scenario outcomes.
• Coordinate with Upstream, DM&T, Marketing and Finance for consistent assumptions.

Skills

Business intelligence

Scenario planning

Long-term outlooks

Strategic planning

Corporate strategy

Market intelligence

Energy market analysis

Gas market analysis

LNG market analysis

NGL market analysis

Demand forecasting

Supply forecasting

Price outlooks

Profitability outlooks

Macroeconomic modelling

Sector scenario modelling

Energy transition scenarios

Multi-pathway scenarios

Strategic risk analysis

Portfolio stress-testing

P and L stress-testing

Portfolio resilience

CAPEX modelling

NPV analysis

IRR analysis

Sensitivity analysis

Financial modelling

Economic modelling

Investment analysis

Growth opportunity assessment

Capital allocation

Strategic Plan development

Gas Masterplan alignment

Market assumptions

Strategic assumptions

Assumption governance

Early-warning indicators

Strategic guardrails

Executive reporting

EXCOM presentations

CEO briefings

Board-level analysis

Decision support

Portfolio analytics

Market structure analysis

Gas contracting

LNG contracting

Energy economics

Cross-functional influence

Stakeholder alignment

Finance coordination

Marketing coordination

Upstream coordination

DM&T coordination

Team leadership

Specialist team development

UAE National development

Emiratisation support

Talent retention

Data governance

Strategic benchmarking

Job description

Manager - Business Intelligence and Scenarios Job Snapshot Role: Manager - Business Intelligence and Scenarios Location: Abu Dhabi Emirate, United Arab Emirates Industry: Oil and Energy Function: Strategy/Planning Experience: Minimum 12 years of relevant experience, including at least 5 years in long-range outlooks, scenario planning, business intelligence, or corporate and strategic planning Job Type: Full-time Position Overview Manager - Business Intelligence and Scenarios in Abu Dhabi Emirate, United Arab Emirates is a senior Oil and Energy opportunity focused on long-term market outlooks, scenario modelling, strategic intelligence, portfolio resilience, and capital allocation. ADNOC Group is hiring an experienced strategy leader to develop 5 to 25 year market, demand, supply, price, and profitability outlooks that help ADNOC Gas anticipate uncertainty, evaluate future energy pathways, and make stronger long-term investment and growth decisions. Job Details Country: United Arab Emirates City: Abu Dhabi Emirate Industry: Oil and Energy Function: Strategy/Planning Salary: 40000-60000 Estimated salary range based on similar jobs in the job city; please confirm the final offer with the employer. Gender: Any Candidate Nationality: Any Job Type: Full-time

Role Context

The Manager - Business Intelligence and Scenarios will establish and lead a long-range outlook capability that supports strategic planning, capital allocation, investment decisions, and future growth across ADNOC Gas. The role converts macroeconomic trends, energy transition pathways, gas and LNG market dynamics, policy developments, demand forecasts, supply expectations, and financial outcomes into practical decision signals for senior leadership. Rather than optimizing individual assets, the position stress-tests portfolio outcomes against multiple possible future environments. Its purpose is to determine whether strategic plans remain resilient under changing prices, policies, market structures, demand conditions, and transition scenarios. A central responsibility will be creating one credible and agreed set of long-term assumptions that can be used consistently across Strategy, Finance, Marketing, Planning, and other business functions.

Key Responsibilities

• Lead development of long-term market, demand, supply, price, and profitability outlooks.
• Produce strategic outlooks covering planning horizons from approximately 5 to 25 years.
• Ensure outlook assumptions provide a robust basis for the Strategic Plan and capital allocation decisions.
• Develop macroeconomic scenario models covering alternative future economic environments.
• Build sector-level scenarios reflecting changes in energy demand, supply, technology, regulation, and policy.
• Evaluate multiple energy transition pathways and their implications for ADNOC Gas.
• Identify strategic risks and opportunities associated with changing global and regional energy markets.
• Translate complex market developments into clear implications for corporate strategy.
• Ensure every scenario produces actionable decision signals rather than purely theoretical analysis.
• Develop a living scenario model that can be repeatedly used by senior leadership.
• Establish strategic guardrails linked to different market and transition outcomes.
• Develop early-warning indicators that highlight when actual market developments are moving toward a particular scenario.
• Monitor external signals and recommend reassessment of strategic assumptions where necessary.
• Perform integrated portfolio stress-testing under alternative market, demand, supply, policy, and price environments.
• Assess P and L resilience under adverse and upside scenarios.
• Evaluate portfolio agility and identify strategic vulnerabilities before they affect long-term value.
• Use outputs from portfolio planning and optimization functions as inputs to scenario stress-testing.
• Maintain a clear boundary between scenario evaluation and direct asset optimization.
• Lead initial high-level financial and economic evaluation of new growth opportunities.
• Develop CAPEX assumptions for potential strategic investments.
• Calculate and assess NPV and IRR for early-stage growth opportunities.
• Perform sensitivity analysis across critical commercial, technical, and market assumptions.
• Evaluate profitability under alternative development and market scenarios.
• Ensure economic modelling aligns with corporate value-creation objectives.
• Build financial models that can withstand management and investment scrutiny.
• Defend modelling assumptions, methodologies, sensitivities, and conclusions when challenged.
• Assess internal and external strategic drivers affecting ADNOC Gas.
• Evaluate implications of policy developments, macroeconomic conditions, market structure, competition, and energy transition trends.
• Convert strategic intelligence into recommendations for the long-term Strategic Plan.
• Interface with ADNOC Upstream regarding production plans, supply profiles, and long‑term assumptions.
• Coordinate with DM&T on market requirements, plans, and demand forecasts.
• Assess implications of Gas Masterplan alignment for long‑term strategy.
• Work with Marketing and Finance to establish consistent assumptions across planning models.
• Resolve differences in long‑term data, methodologies, and assumptions across functions.
• Establish one agreed set of outlook assumptions for use across ADNOC Gas.
• Maintain governance over changes to strategic assumptions.
• Document sources, assumptions, rationale, and sensitivities supporting long‑term outlooks.
• Ensure input data remains consistent, traceable, and suitable for executive decision-making.
• Prepare strategic analysis for EXCOM and senior leadership.
• Develop CEO-level briefing materials covering major long‑term risks, opportunities, and decision choices.
• Convert detailed analysis into concise executive recommendations.
• Communicate uncertainty clearly without reducing decision usefulness.
• Highlight key trade‑offs between growth, resilience, profitability, and capital exposure.
• Develop structured recommendations that can support high‑value corporate decisions.
• Build and lead the Business Intelligence and Scenario Planning team.
• Recruit, develop, coach, and retain high‑calibre specialist talent.
• Establish clear analytical standards and working methodologies for the team.
• Develop team capability in market intelligence, scenario modelling, strategic analysis, and economic evaluation.
• Support UAE National development in line with Emiratisation objectives.
• Create development pathways for emerging UAE National talent.
• Maintain specialist capability during the establishment of the new operating model.
• Influence stakeholders across divisions and Group entities without relying on direct authority.
• Build productive working relationships with separate business and legal entities.
• Secure timely data and assumptions required for strategic modelling.
• Maintain analytical independence while developing trusted relationships with stakeholders.
• Support continuous improvement of business intelligence tools, scenario methodologies, and strategic planning processes.

Ideal Profile

The position requires a Bachelor 's degree in a relevant discipline together with at least 12 years of professional experience. Candidates should have at least 5 years of direct experience in long‑range outlook development, scenario planning, business intelligence, corporate strategy, or strategic planning within Oil and Gas, LNG, petrochemicals, or energy consulting. Prior line‑management experience is required. The successful candidate must demonstrate ownership of long‑term market, demand, supply, and price outlooks covering planning periods of approximately 5 to 25 years. Strong knowledge of gas, LNG, and NGL value chains is essential, including understanding of market structures, contracting models, commercial drivers, supply dynamics, and demand fundamentals. Candidates should possess advanced financial and economic modelling capability and be able to construct, interpret, and defend CAPEX, NPV, IRR, sensitivity, and portfolio P and L stress‑testing models. Experience developing multiple strategic scenarios and translating them into actual corporate decisions is critical. The role requires the ability to distinguish meaningful decision signals from speculative long‑term analysis. Candidates should demonstrate strong executive communication skills and experience preparing Board, EXCOM, or CEO‑level recommendations. Excellent structured written and spoken English is required. The successful candidate should also have a strong record of influencing across organizational boundaries, securing alignment without direct authority, and developing specialist teams.

Skills Set

• Business intelligence
• Scenario planning
• Long‑term outlooks
• Strategic planning
• Corporate strategy
• Market intelligence
• Energy market analysis
• Gas market analysis
• LNG market analysis
• NGL market analysis
• Demand forecasting
• Supply forecasting
• Price outlooks
• Profitability outlooks
• Macroeconomic modelling
• Sector scenario modelling
• Energy transition scenarios
• Multi‑pathway scenarios
• Strategic risk analysis
• Opportunity analysis
• Portfolio stress‑testing
• P and L stress‑testing
• Portfolio resilience
• Strategic agility
• CAPEX modelling
• NPV analysis
• IRR analysis
• Sensitivity analysis
• Financial modelling
• Economic modelling
• Investment analysis
• Growth opportunity assessment
• Capital allocation
• Strategic Plan development
• Gas Masterplan alignment
• Market assumptions
• Strategic assumptions
• Assumption governance
• Early‑warning indicators
• Strategic guardrails
• Executive reporting
• EXCOM presentations
• CEO briefings
• Board‑level analysis
• Decision support
• Portfolio analytics
• Market structure analysis
• Gas contracting
• LNG contracting
• Energy economics
• Cross‑functional influence
• Stakeholder alignment
• Finance coordination
• Marketing coordination
• Upstream coordination
• DM&T coordination
• Team leadership
• Specialist team development
• UAE National development
• Emiratisation support
• Talent retention
• Data governance
• Strategic benchmarking

Why Join Us

This role offers the opportunity to shape how ADNOC Gas prepares for long‑term uncertainty within the Oil and Energy sector in Abu Dhabi Emirate. The position has direct influence over strategic planning, capital allocation, growth priorities, scenario development, and executive decision‑making across a rapidly evolving energy environment. For an experienced strategy and business intelligence leader, the role provides substantial scope to build a first‑of‑its‑kind long‑range outlook capability, establish enterprise‑wide assumptions, develop decision‑ready scenario models, and influence major gas and LNG investment choices over multi‑decade planning horizons.

About the Company

ADNOC Group is a diversified energy organization headquartered in Abu Dhabi with operations spanning upstream production, gas processing, LNG, infrastructure, marketing, logistics, and the wider energy value chain. ADNOC Gas supports long‑term value creation through integrated planning, market intelligence, disciplined investment, strategic growth, and resilient management of its gas portfolio.