Political Expert

Great Value Hiring; United States; On-site; USD 207,000 - 344,000; Full time

Job summary

Great Value Hiring is seeking a Local Political Expert in Elections Forecasting & Political Risk to author point-in-time political reports based on a stated evidence cutoff. You will make directional judgments on polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, and explain causal mechanisms behind events' impacts.

The ideal candidate has hands-on experience with US races in target states, strong polling literacy, and a track record of live forecasting judgments.

Qualifications

• Strong forecasting, polling literacy, and political-risk analysis skills are essential.
• Ability to author point-in-time political reports based on evidence cutoffs.
• Experience evaluating polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Forecasting

Polling literacy

Political risk analysis

Job description

Local Political Expert Elections Forecasting & Political Risk [$150-$250/hr]

This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

Role Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard

Good Candidature

• Local political analysts with hands-on experience on specific races in swing states: current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent cycles in the same state
• On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, the candidates, and the local political environment, from roles such as university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff, or state political-risk analyst
• A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races not retrospective commentary
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
• Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance

Preferable Backgrounds

• Political Science departments and survey research centers at universities in the target states, state and regional pollsters, state-level campaign and party analytics teams, and decision desks or race-ratings outlets with state-specific coverage
• National forecasting or political-risk experience is welcome when paired with deep knowledge of a specific state
• Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies

Not a fit

• Profiles whose experience is mainly international politics, geopolitics, or country risk, with little or no work on US races
• Analysts who have not worked on a current or recent US race in the state they would cover
• Pure communications or journalism profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment
• Academic profiles whose work is purely theoretical, with no analysis of live races