Forecasting & Simulation Statistician (Remote)

LMI Government Consulting; United States; Remote; USD 90,000 - 130,000; Full time

Job summary

LMI Government Consulting is seeking an Applied Statistician to forecast passport demand for the U.S. Department of State. You will build time series and econometric models, run simulations, and quantify uncertainty to inform government decision-making.

The role emphasizes applying regression, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, state-space, Bayesian methods, and scenario analysis using Python/R/SAS. Remote work within the U.S. is supported.

Qualifications

• Strong foundation in statistics, forecasting, econometrics, and simulation.
• Experience with time series forecasting and model validation.
• Ability to communicate methodology and uncertainty to diverse stakeholders.
• Proficiency with statistical software tools (Python/R/SAS/MATLAB).
• Experience with backtesting and scenario analysis.

Responsibilities

• Develop and maintain statistical, econometric, and time series models to forecast passport demand.
• Apply forecasting methods such as regression, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, state space models, Bayesian methods, and other appropriate techniques.
• Develop simulations and scenario analyses to evaluate uncertainty and potential future outcomes.
• Perform model validation, backtesting, sensitivity analysis, residual analysis, and forecast error evaluation.
• Analyze historical demand, survey data, economic indicators, demographics, travel trends, policy changes, and other potential demand drivers.
• Evaluate model assumptions, data quality, structural changes, bias, and sources of uncertainty.
• Compare alternative modeling approaches and recommend methods based on accuracy, interpretability, and statistical rigor.
• Monitor actual demand against forecasts and identify opportunities to improve model performance.
• Communicate methodology, assumptions, uncertainty, and analytical findings to technical and nontechnical stakeholders.
• Maintain reproducible analytical workflows, model documentation, and technical artifacts.

Skills

Time series analysis

Forecasting methods

Statistical modeling

Model validation

Python

R

Communication skills

Quantitative problem solving

Education

Bachelor's degree in Statistics or related field

Tools

Python

R

Stata

SAS

MATLAB

Job description

LMI Government Consulting is seeking an Applied Statistician to forecast passport demand for the U.S. Department of State. You will build time series and econometric models, run simulations, and quantify uncertainty to inform government decision-making.

The role emphasizes applying regression, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, state-space, Bayesian methods, and scenario analysis using Python/R/SAS. Remote work within the U.S. is supported.