Remote Applied Statistician - Forecasting & Simulation

LMI Government Consulting; Northern (KY); Hybrid; USD 90,000 - 130,000; Full time

Job summary

LMI Government Consulting is seeking an Applied Statistician, Forecasting & Simulation to support passport demand forecasting for the Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs. The role focuses on applied statistics, forecasting, predictive modeling, econometrics, and simulation.

The ideal candidate will develop, evaluate, and refine statistical models, communicate uncertainty to stakeholders, and maintain reproducible workflows.

Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree in Statistics, Econometrics, Economics, Applied Mathematics, Operations Research, or another highly quantitative discipline.
• Ability to operate efficiently using new and emerging tools of quantitative analysis.
• Experience in statistical analysis, forecasting, econometrics, predictive modeling, or related quantitative analysis.
• Strong knowledge of regression, probability, statistical inference, time series analysis, model validation, and uncertainty.

Responsibilities

• Develop and maintain statistical, econometric, and time series models to forecast passport demand.
• Apply forecasting methods such as regression, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, state space models, Bayesian methods, and other appropriate techniques.
• Develop simulations and scenario analyses to evaluate uncertainty and potential future outcomes.
• Perform model validation, backtesting, sensitivity analysis, residual analysis, and forecast error evaluation.
• Analyze historical demand, survey data, economic indicators, demographics, travel trends, policy changes, and other potential demand drivers.
• Evaluate model assumptions, data quality, structural changes, bias, and sources of uncertainty.
• Compare alternative modeling approaches and recommend methods based on accuracy, interpretability, and statistical rigor.
• Monitor actual demand against forecasts and identify opportunities to improve model performance.
• Communicate methodology, assumptions, uncertainty, and analytical findings to technical and nontechnical stakeholders.
• Maintain reproducible analytical workflows, model documentation, and technical artifacts.

Skills

Statistical analysis

Forecasting

Time series

Regression

Model validation

Python

R

Communication

Problem solving

Education

Bachelor's in Statistics or related

Master's or PhD preferred

Tools

Stata

SAS

MATLAB

Job description

LMI Government Consulting is seeking an Applied Statistician, Forecasting & Simulation to support passport demand forecasting for the Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs. The role focuses on applied statistics, forecasting, predictive modeling, econometrics, and simulation.

The ideal candidate will develop, evaluate, and refine statistical models, communicate uncertainty to stakeholders, and maintain reproducible workflows.