Remote Forecasting Statistician: Time Series & Modeling

LMI Consulting, LLC; United States; Remote; USD 90,000 - 130,000; Full time

Job summary

LMI Consulting, LLC seeks an Applied Statistician, Forecasting & Simulation to support passport demand forecasting for the U.S. Department of State.

You will develop and refine statistical models to forecast demand and help stakeholders understand drivers and uncertainty. The role emphasizes time series, econometrics, and simulation, with opportunities to validate models, evaluate uncertainty, and communicate insights to technical and nontechnical audiences.

Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree in Statistics, Econometrics, Economics, Applied Mathematics, Operations Research, or another highly quantitative discipline.
• Ability to operate efficiently using new and emerging tools of quantitative analysis.
• Experience in statistical analysis, forecasting, econometrics, predictive modeling, or related quantitative analysis.
• Strong knowledge of regression, probability, statistical inference, time series analysis, model validation, and uncertainty.
• Experience developing and evaluating forecasting models using ARIMA, regression-based forecasting, exponential smoothing, state space models, or comparable methods.
• Experience with simulation, scenario analysis, or probabilistic modeling.
• Experience validating models through backtesting, sensitivity analysis, residual analysis, or out-of-sample testing.
• Proficiency with Python, R, Stata, SAS, MATLAB, or comparable statistical tools.
• Strong analytical, problem-solving, and communication skills.
• Ability to independently structure and solve complex quantitative problems.

Responsibilities

• Develop and maintain statistical, econometric, and time series models to forecast passport demand.
• Apply forecasting methods such as regression, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, state space models, Bayesian methods, and other appropriate techniques.
• Develop simulations and scenario analyses to evaluate uncertainty and potential future outcomes.
• Perform model validation, backtesting, sensitivity analysis, residual analysis, and forecast error evaluation.
• Analyze historical demand, survey data, economic indicators, demographics, travel trends, policy changes, and other potential demand drivers.
• Evaluate model assumptions, data quality, structural changes, bias, and sources of uncertainty.
• Compare alternative modeling approaches and recommend methods based on accuracy, interpretability, and statistical rigor.
• Monitor actual demand against forecasts and identify opportunities to improve model performance.
• Communicate methodology, assumptions, uncertainty, and analytical findings to technical and nontechnical stakeholders.
• Maintain reproducible analytical workflows, model documentation, and technical artifacts.

Skills

Time series analysis

Forecasting methods

Statistical modeling

Python/R

Model validation

Communication

Education

Bachelor's degree in a highly quantitative discipline

Master's degree or PhD in Statistics or related field

Tools

Python

R

Stata

SAS

MATLAB

Job description

LMI Consulting, LLC seeks an Applied Statistician, Forecasting & Simulation to support passport demand forecasting for the U.S. Department of State.

You will develop and refine statistical models to forecast demand and help stakeholders understand drivers and uncertainty. The role emphasizes time series, econometrics, and simulation, with opportunities to validate models, evaluate uncertainty, and communicate insights to technical and nontechnical audiences.