Senior Economist - AI Scenario Modeling (Remote)

Windfall Trust; Poland; Remote; PLN 256,000 - 513,000; Part time

Job summary

Windfall Trust is seeking a senior economist to build and own its quantitative modeling capability, serving as the technical authority behind all published analyses. You will define methods, assemble data, guide code, and defend results to economists, policymakers, and government analysts.

The role advances a scenario modeling platform that translates narrative AI futures into quantified economic parameters, propagates shocks through household microdata, and yields distributional and fiscal

Qualifications

• Advanced degree in economics or related quantitative field; PhD valuable.
• 5+ years of applied quantitative modeling of economic outcomes.
• Experience across multiple modeling approaches: microsimulation, reduced-form estimation, macro/structural modeling, index construction, or fiscal costing.

Responsibilities

• Own the design and delivery of Windfall's scenario modeling platform: defining economic primitives, mapping shocks onto occupations, and propagating them through quantitative modeling to produce distributional and fiscal outputs.
• Design macroeconomic modeling approaches for a wide range of scenarios to inform economic preparedness.
• Lead methodology for country-level work, including index construction, indicator selection, standardization, weighting, and uncertainty quantification; defend design choices.
• Evaluate and select methods, models, and data sources across countries with very different statistical infrastructure, making principled judgments about microsimulation, reduced-form estimation, structural modeling, or simpler arithmetic.
• Simulate and cost policy responses under each scenario, including transfer programs, capital taxation, and social insurance reforms, with honest sensitivity analysis.
• Co-author Windfall's flagship publications, translating technical results into analysis that policymakers and journalists can understand without misrepresenting uncertainty.
• Set the standards for reproducibility, documentation, and quality control across Windfall's quantitative work, so every published number can be traced and defended.

Education

Advanced degree in economics or closely related quantitative field

Job description

Windfall Trust is seeking a senior economist to build and own its quantitative modeling capability, serving as the technical authority behind all published analyses. You will define methods, assemble data, guide code, and defend results to economists, policymakers, and government analysts.

The role advances a scenario modeling platform that translates narrative AI futures into quantified economic parameters, propagates shocks through household microdata, and yields distributional and fiscal