Senior Elections Forecaster & Real-Time Polling Predictor

Obsidian; Greater London; On-site; GBP 90,000 - 130,000; Full time

Job summary

Obsidian is seeking a senior elections forecaster to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from fixed evidence cutoffs. You will make directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events’ political and market impacts.

You will review model analyses and grade them against established standards, drawing on deep forecasting experience to ensure high-quality, timely judgment in elections, polling, and

Qualifications

• Senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst.
• Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Forecasting

Polling literacy

Odds evaluation

Causal analysis

Live judgment

Job description

Obsidian is seeking a senior elections forecaster to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from fixed evidence cutoffs. You will make directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events’ political and market impacts.

You will review model analyses and grade them against established standards, drawing on deep forecasting experience to ensure high-quality, timely judgment in elections, polling, and