Senior Political Risk Forecaster — Real-Time Polls & Impacts

Obsidian; Greater London; Remote; GBP 90,000 - 150,000; Full time

Job summary

Obsidian in London is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.

This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

Qualifications

• Senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst.
• A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds — not retrospective commentary.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Senior forecaster

Polling literacy

Causal analysis

Live judgement

Job description

Obsidian in London is building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.

This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.