Political Analyst - Elections Forecasting

Obsidian; Greater London; On-site; GBP 90,000 - 130,000; Full time

Job summary

Obsidian is seeking a senior elections forecaster to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from fixed evidence cutoffs. You will make directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, and explain the causal mechanisms behind events’ political and market impacts.

You will review model analyses and grade them against established standards, drawing on deep forecasting experience to ensure high-quality, timely judgment in elections, polling, and

Qualifications

• Senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst.
• Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.

Skills

Forecasting

Polling literacy

Odds evaluation

Causal analysis

Live judgment

Job description

About the work

We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.

This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

What you will do

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard

Who we are looking for

• A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst
• A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds — not retrospective commentary
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
• Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance

Backgrounds we look at first: top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate or governor races, and political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.

Not a fit

Pure communications, journalism, or academic profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.

Point-in-time discipline

Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.