Rail Forecasting & Performance Modelling Lead

FirstGroup plc; Greater London; Hybrid; GBP 70,000 - 110,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Free Travel for you and a nominated on

75% discount off season tickets

Discounts on European rail services

First Xclusives portal benefits

Employee Assistance Programme

Job summary

First Rail London is seeking a skilled forecasting and analytics professional to lead forecasting models across the network, delivering data-driven insights for planning and investment decisions.

You will analyse trends across operations, infrastructure, fleet and resources, develop scenario modelling for timetable changes, and support business cases and performance improvement initiatives, in collaboration with key stakeholders.

Qualifications

• Forecasting, modelling and analytics experience required.
• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills.
• Experience developing business cases or investment appraisals.
• Ability to interpret complex data and present findings to senior stakeholders.
• Understanding performance drivers and resilience.

Responsibilities

• Develop forecasting models to predict future performance, reliability and resilience risks across the network.
• Analyse trends in operational, infrastructure, fleet and resource performance to identify emerging risks and opportunities.
• Produce scenario modelling to assess the potential impact of timetable changes, infrastructure interventions, resource changes and operational initiatives.
• Support medium and long-term performance planning through data-led forecasting and analysis.
• Develop performance trajectories and provide insight into future performance risks against concession and business targets.
• Generate actionable insight to support the design and prioritisation of performance improvement initiatives.
• Work with operational, engineering and Network Rail stakeholders to identify opportunities for improvement and quantify potential benefits.
• Support the development of business cases for performance improvement initiatives, operational changes and investment opportunities.
• Quantify expected performance, resilience, customer and financial benefits associated with proposed schemes.
• Provide modelling, forecasting and sensitivity analysis to support investment decisions.
• Ensure the organisation has a clear understanding of performance drivers, future risks and improvement opportunities.
• Present complexanalysis and modelling outputs in a clear and accessible manner for senior leaders and stakeholders

Skills

Forecasting

Modelling

Analytics

Performance improvement

Business cases

Data interpretation

Senior stakeholders

Education

Degree in analytical discipline

Tools

Visualization tools

Modelling tools

Job description

First Rail London is seeking a skilled forecasting and analytics professional to lead forecasting models across the network, delivering data-driven insights for planning and investment decisions.

You will analyse trends across operations, infrastructure, fleet and resources, develop scenario modelling for timetable changes, and support business cases and performance improvement initiatives, in collaboration with key stakeholders.