Performance Forecasting & Modelling Manager

FirstGroup plc; Greater London; Hybrid; GBP 70,000 - 110,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Free Travel for you and a nominated on

75% discount off season tickets

Discounts on European rail services

First Xclusives portal benefits

Employee Assistance Programme

Job summary

First Rail London is seeking a skilled forecasting and analytics professional to lead forecasting models across the network, delivering data-driven insights for planning and investment decisions.

You will analyse trends across operations, infrastructure, fleet and resources, develop scenario modelling for timetable changes, and support business cases and performance improvement initiatives, in collaboration with key stakeholders.

Qualifications

• Forecasting, modelling and analytics experience required.
• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills.
• Experience developing business cases or investment appraisals.
• Ability to interpret complex data and present findings to senior stakeholders.
• Understanding performance drivers and resilience.

Responsibilities

• Develop forecasting models to predict future performance, reliability and resilience risks across the network.
• Analyse trends in operational, infrastructure, fleet and resource performance to identify emerging risks and opportunities.
• Produce scenario modelling to assess the potential impact of timetable changes, infrastructure interventions, resource changes and operational initiatives.
• Support medium and long-term performance planning through data-led forecasting and analysis.
• Develop performance trajectories and provide insight into future performance risks against concession and business targets.
• Generate actionable insight to support the design and prioritisation of performance improvement initiatives.
• Work with operational, engineering and Network Rail stakeholders to identify opportunities for improvement and quantify potential benefits.
• Support the development of business cases for performance improvement initiatives, operational changes and investment opportunities.
• Quantify expected performance, resilience, customer and financial benefits associated with proposed schemes.
• Provide modelling, forecasting and sensitivity analysis to support investment decisions.
• Ensure the organisation has a clear understanding of performance drivers, future risks and improvement opportunities.
• Present complexanalysis and modelling outputs in a clear and accessible manner for senior leaders and stakeholders

Skills

Forecasting

Modelling

Analytics

Performance improvement

Business cases

Data interpretation

Senior stakeholders

Education

Degree in analytical discipline

Tools

Visualization tools

Modelling tools

Job description

Who are we

First Rail London (FRL) is the train operating company responsible for running the London Overground network under a concession agreement with Transport for London (TfL). The concession began in May 2026.

FirstRail London is part of FirstGroup, one of the leading rail operators and one of the largest bus operators in the UK. FirstGroup operates services throughout the UK and Ireland, with over 30,000 employees providing services that make travel smoother and life easier. FirstGroup works hard to reduce its impact on the environment, introducing cleaner and more environmentally responsible methods of transport

About the job

• Lead forecasting and predictive modelling capability.
• Provide data-driven insight for business planning and investment decisions.

Your main responsibilities will be:

• Develop and maintain forecasting models to predict future performance, reliability and resilience risks across the network.
• Analyse trends in operational, infrastructure, fleet and resource performance to identify emerging risks and opportunities.
• Produce scenario modelling to assess the potential impact of timetable changes, infrastructure interventions, resource changes and operational initiatives.
• Support medium and long-term performance planning through data-led forecasting and analysis.
• Develop performance trajectories and provide insight into future performance risks against concession and business targets.
• Generate actionable insight to support the design and prioritisation of performance improvement initiatives.
• Work with operational, engineering and Network Rail stakeholders to identify opportunities for improvement and quantify potential benefits.
• Support the development of business cases for performance improvement initiatives, operational changes and investment opportunities.
• Quantify expected performance, resilience, customer and financial benefits associated with proposed schemes.
• Provide modelling, forecasting and sensitivity analysis to support investment decisions.
• Ensure the organisation has a clear understanding of performance drivers, future risks and improvement opportunities.
• Present complexanalysis and modelling outputs in a clear and accessible manner for senior leaders and stakeholders

As a minimum, you will need to have:

• Experience in forecasting, modelling, analytics or performance improvement.
• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills.
• Experience developing business cases, benefits modelling or investment appraisals.
• Ability to interpret complex data and present findings to senior stakeholders.
• Strong understanding of performance drivers and operational resilience.

Desirable:

• Experience within railway performance or operational planning environments.
• Knowledge of Schedule 7 and Schedule 8 commercial mechanisms.
• Experience using visualisation and modelling tools.
• Degree orequivalent qualification in a relevant analytical discipline.

About the location

Redman Place, Stratford - Travel across the full London Overground network will be required on an adhoc basis

The Reward

• Free Travel for you and a nominated person at your address on TfL Network - this alone is worth a potential total of £5,200 per annum
• 75% discount off season tickets and leisure travel on other Train Operating Companies
• Discounts on European rail services after 1 year of service
• First Xclusives – a benefits portal offering a wide range of benefits and discounts
• Employee Assistance Programme - 24hr helpline, covering a multitude of subjects

We all belong at First Rail London.

FirstGroup's vision is to provide an inclusive environment for all colleagues, across its group of businesses, ensuring all candidates have an equal opportunity to access meaningful employment.

We value our differences such as age, gender, LGBTQIA+, ethnicity, religion, and disability. We maintain a zero tolerance towards any form of prejudice towards our colleagues, customers, and future talent.

We celebrate and encourage diversity of thought, progressive ways of working and seeing all our colleagues grow and thrive.

We review all roles and job descriptions to ensure they are accessible and, where possible, we support and provide flexible working options; we recommend that you refer to each vacancy description for further details.

If you require additional support to complete your application due to a disability or neurodivergent condition, for example, dyslexia, dyspraxia, or autism, please follow the links below. We encourage you to share any additional needs you may require so we can provide a fair and equal process for all who apply.

https://exceptionalindividuals.com/neurodiversity/

https://www.healthassured.org/blog/neurodiversity/