Freelance Geopolitical & Event Forecasting Experts at AI Startup

Lightly AG; United States; Remote; USD 55,000 - 83,000; Part time

Benefits offered by this job

YC-backed team

Flexible hours

Job summary

Lightly AG in Zurich seeks analytical Geopolitical and Event Forecasting Professionals for evaluating AI-generated predictions on real-world events. Projects run about 15 hours per week and begin early July.

You will assess forecasts on elections, macro policy, and tech/regulatory events using a rubric, collaborating with a YC-backed team. The role requires 2–3 years in political analysis or policy research, excellent English, and strong quantitative skills.

Qualifications

• 2–3 years of experience in political analysis, macroeconomics, geopolitical risk, or policy research.
• Experience producing or evaluating probabilistic forecasts (elections, policy impact, macro scenarios).
• Familiarity with prediction markets or superforecasting methodologies.
• Fluency in English required.

Responsibilities

• Evaluate AI-generated event forecasts using a provided rubric.
• Assess predictions on elections, central bank decisions, policy announcements and tech/regulatory events.
• Provide high-quality feedback and summaries of forecast accuracy.

Skills

Geopolitical risk analysis

Probabilistic forecasting

Data analysis / quantitative skills

Policy research

Clear communication

Fluent in English

Tools

Polymarket

Metaculus

Job description

Lightly AG is an ETH and HSG spin-off pioneering in machine learning and computer vision. Backed by Y Combinator and top-tier investors, our technology is used by global leaders in autonomous driving, medical imaging, and visual inspection. With a small but sharp team in Zurich, we're looking for analytical and driven Geopolitical and Event Forecasting Professionals to help us evaluate AI-generated predictions about real-world events . Estimated project scope of approximately 15 hours/week .

Tasks Evaluate AI-generated event forecasts by assessing the accuracy and quality of predictions covering elections, central bank decisions, policy announcements, and technology/regulatory events using a provided rubric. Project expected to begin early July.

Requirements

• Have at least 2-3 years of recent experience in political analysis, macroeconomics, geopolitical risk, or policy research
• Have experience producing or evaluating probabilistic forecasts - election modelling, policy impact assessments, or macro scenario analysis
• Are familiar with prediction markets (Polymarket, Metaculus) or superforecasting methodologies
• Are fluent in English (requirement)
• Have strong analytical and quantitative skills
• Communicate clearly and precisely

Benefits

• Work directly with a YC-backed team on cutting-edge AI evaluation projects
• Competitive compensation tailored to experience and scope of work

If you've done political forecasting, macro analysis, or prediction market research before, we'd love to hear specific examples.